Just like last season, there’s a battle atop the NFC North, but unlike last season, the teams are different. The 2024 NFC North came down to the final game of the season, when the Detroit Lions edged it out ahead of the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings. This season, the Chicago Bears are in position to go worst-to-first, sitting at 7-3, with the Green Bay Packers half a game behind at 6-3-1. Green Bay will have a pivotal divisional clash against the 4-6 Vikings this week, and since the Bears have a fairly difficult matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Packers could move ahead with both games against Chicago still to be played.
Green Bay might have to do it without Josh Jacobs, though. The star running back sustained a knee contusion early in the Packers’ Week 11 win over the New York Giants, knocking him out for the rest of the game. He didn’t suit up for practice on Wednesday, but he did participate in a limited fashion on Thursday, and as long as he recovers well, it bodes well for his potential participation in Sunday’s clash.
Green Bay’s running back depth is lackluster: besides Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson is the only other running back who’s taken more than three carries this season, and he wasn’t very effective in his 11 rushes last Sunday, turning them into just 40 yards, though he did find paydirt. He also hasn’t contributed much as a receiver, taking 11 catches for 69 yards. Wilson does have a fairly solid track record for a backup running back — he racked up 502 yards last season and scored in each of the Packers’ final three games — but until last weekend, he’d never appeared in more than half of Green Bay’s offensive snaps. Advanced numbers are unfriendly to him: while Jacobs has received the seventh-highest grade among qualified running backs at Pro Football Focus, Wilson ranks fifth-to-last.
Given the alternatives and the critical three-game divisional stretch, I’d expect Jacobs to play, especially since he’s been historically durable and bone bruises don’t typically result in much missed time. There’s also no significant evidence to suggest that players who play through bone bruises are at a higher risk of suffering more severe injuries in the knee, such as ligament tears, so he won’t be risking his long-term health if he plays. He said after Thursday’s practice that the swelling had decreased, but that he was monitoring his range of motion and that his pain was manageable. As long as the swelling continues to go down, he should return before the Packers’ Thanksgiving game against the Detroit Lions, at the latest.
Given his participation in practice, the fact that the swelling has decreased, and his lack of pain, he should be fine to play his usual load on Sunday, which should make him a must-start given how heavily Green Bay relies on him in both the running and passing games. Only Ashton Jeanty and Christian McCaffrey have higher red zone rushing shares than Jacobs does, and while the Vikings have been good in the red zone, they’ve still allowed just the 12th-fewest red zone opportunities, which isn’t good enough to ward me away from an elite lead back like Jacobs. If anything, Minnesota’s strong secondary would ward Jordan Love away from throwing the ball, forcing him to hand it off to Jacobs instead.
