Five years after the New England Patriots’ dynastic run atop the AFC East came to an end, the Patriots once again lead the division, threatening to stop the Buffalo Bills from extending their own control over the division for another season. Buffalo will have to beat the Houston Texans tonight on Thursday Night Football just to get within a game of the 9-2 Patriots, while a win would put the Texans within half a game of the Jacksonville Jaguars for second in the AFC South.
In honor of the big game, DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest with a huge $1.25 million prize pool. $300,000 will be paid out to the winner. Here are three players who should be in your lineups for tonight’s marquee game.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF @ HOU)
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, $18,600 CP
Allen is the most expensive player on the slate, but that makes sense given that he literally was named the league’s Most Valuable Player last season, and he’s been nearly as good in 2025. Last week’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was a truly historic performance: he threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns and added an additional three scores on the ground, accomplishing that feat for the second time in his career and racking up a season-high 47.7 FPTS. He’s recorded 17 or more FPTS in all but one of his games, and that was an early-season blowout over the New York Jets in which brilliance was far from required.
To be fair, Houston won’t make it easy. The Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, held them to the third-fewest yards per game, lowest passer rating, second-lowest completion percentage, and fewest adjusted yards per attempt. However, opposing signal-callers have been pretty efficient on the ground, turning 27 carries into 190 yards, even if none of them have found the end zone. They also haven’t come up against a quarterback as mobile as Allen, since Lamar Jackson was hurt when they faced the Baltimore Ravens. Plus, having a quarterback is useful in fantasy football, and there’s no way I’m trusting Davis Mills ($14,400 CP) over Allen at any price point.
RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills, $13,800 CP
Marks hasn’t had super consistent production in his rookie season, as he’s alternated efficient games with stinkers, but his flashes have helped him usurp Nick Chubb ($4,800 CP) for the full-time starting role. In a Week 10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Marks had 14 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown, as well as two catches for 18 yards (16.1 FPTS), marking his third double-digit fantasy effort in the last five weeks. He had an ugly game last weekend against the Tennessee Titans, but I’m more encouraged by the fact that he received 18 of the team’s 23 rushing attempts than I am discouraged by his inefficiency.
If he gets that many opportunities again against the Bills, he should be able to make the most of them. This season, Buffalo has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns to the position, as well as an additional 259 yards through the air. Marks hasn’t been great at forcing yardage after contact, ranking 15th-to-last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt and averaging just one broken tackle per 24.8 carries, but the Bills rank last by Pro Football Focus’ tackling grades, so tonight could be his opportunity.
K Ka’imi Fairbairn, Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills, $7,500 CP
After he missed two weeks with a quad injury, Houston will have one of the league’s best kickers back in the lineup for tonight’s game. Fairbairn has averaged 11.9 FPTS per game, a better average than even Buffalo receiver Khalil Shakir ($12,000 CP), who has nearly double his DFS salary. He’s made 22 of his 25 kicks this season and scored at least nine FPTS in all but two of his games. His fantasy viability will depend on the Texans’ ability to get into field goal range, but with a career long of 61 yards and the sixth-furthest upfield average starting field position in the league, Mills won’t have to do all that much to get it into his range.
Defensively, Houston simply doesn’t allow enough red zone opportunities for me to feel comfortable going with his Buffalo counterpart, Matt Prater ($7,800), and the Bills’ red zone offense is clinical enough and the Texans’ red zone defense bad enough that Prater will probably end up kicking more extra points than field goals. That’s not the case for Buffalo: it has allowed five more red zone opportunities than Houston has and limited opponents to the 12th-lowest conversion rate, forcing more field goal attempts. The Texans’ red zone offense has also been the league’s second-worst, forcing them to turn to Fairbairn for spot kicks.
