I think I have to make a rule at the very top of this article: I’m not allowed to pick Josh Allen to score the first touchdown on Thursday Night Football. It’s just too basic, right? Allen leads all Bills players in rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, and he’s on the heels of accounting for six touchdowns in Sunday’s lopsided victory over the Buccaneers. He’s the reigning MVP for goodness sake. He’s quite good.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s break down the odds and make some less obvious first touchdown picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Don’t worry. You can still bet on Allen if you want. I won’t judge you.
Bills vs. Texans First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Woody Marks First Touchdown Scorer (+700)
It hasn’t actually translated into all that many touchdowns, but Woody Marks has slowly turned a running back committee with Nick Chubb (+2200) into a full-on “bell cow” situation. In Houston’s past two games, wins over the Jaguars and the Titans, Marks has been on the field for 106 of his team’s 145 offensive snaps (73.1%), while also garnering 32 of the Texans’ 40 running back carries (80.0%). It’s not the largest sample size in the world, but if that usage were prorated across an entire season, Marks would have one of the largest backfield roles in all of football. His monopoly on Houston’s RB touches is also clear in the red zone, as Marks has seen six rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line since the beginning of Week 10. By comparison, Nick Chubb hasn’t registered even one such attempt in that stretch. With Buffalo conceding the most opponent rushing touchdowns per game of any team in the NFL this season (1.7), it feels like this primetime tilt could be Marks’ opportunity for a breakout performance. Let’s just hope his trip to the end zone comes early.
Gabriel Davis First Touchdown Scorer (+2200)
You’ll notice that every Bills’ wide receiver not named Khalil Shakir (+1400) has their first touchdown scorer odds clumped around +2200. It’s not all that difficult to figure out the rationale behind that decision. Buffalo completely overhauled it’s passing attack in Week 11, benching former first-round pick Keon Coleman and bringing Gabe Davis and Mecole Hardman into the fold. The result? All five Bills’ WRs logged a snap share between 40% and 55% in the team’s win over the Buccaneers, with no skill-position player seeing more than five targets. So, from the perspective of trying to make projections, the whole receiving corps is a mess. That said, I’m gravitating towards Davis being the guy to emerge and separate himself from the pack — at least in the red zone. Not only is the 6’2, 225 pound veteran built like a touchdown threat, but Davis has a long history with Josh Allen (+450). In fact, in 2023 and 2022, Davis finished second on Buffalo’s roster in targets inside the 20-yard line, trailing only Stefon Diggs in both seasons. Allen clearly trusts Davis. That, along with the long shot odds, is enough to have me interested on Thursday.
