UPDATE: According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Jimmy Butler III (back) and Draymond Green (illness) are not expected to suit up tonight against the Miami Heat.
As he seeks to keep the Golden State Warriors afloat in the early part of a trying 2025-26 season, Stephen Curry ($9,200) has reminded NBA fans of why he’s one of the greatest players on the planet, scoring 34 or more points thrice in the last four games to help lead Golden State to a trio of wins. However, he will rest in tonight’s 7:30 p.m. ET contest against the Miami Heat because of an ankle injury, according to ESPN’s Anthony Slater. Slater also noted that Jimmy Butler ($8,100), Draymond Green ($6,400), and Buddy Hield ($4,200) are questionable, which could leave the Warriors without each of their top three scorers tonight. It’s the second night of a back-to-back.
Curry’s absence will obviously be huge for Golden State, which went just 1-2 when he was sidelined with an illness earlier this month and which has been 2.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the bench. In particular, while the Warriors have tightened up on defense without him, their offensive rating drops from 117.8 (which would be the seventh-best mark in the league) to 110.7 (25th). Golden State has also been 11.9 points per 100 possessions worse without Butler and 20.2 points per 100 possessions worse without Green, so their health will be even more critical, especially with Jonathan Kuminga ($7,500) and Al Horford ($4,400) also out, leaving the Warriors extremely thin in the front-court.
Brandin Podziemski ($6,000) would have the most to gain from Curry’s absence, as he’ll likely step back into Golden State’s new-look starting lineup featuring Moses Moody ($5,600) and rookie Will Richard ($4,500). Across Curry’s previous absence, Podziemski was inefficient but still managed to average 11.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (26.6 FPTS) per game, so if he can nail his shots tonight, he could have some reasonable fantasy value. If Green is unable to go, centers Quinten Post ($4,600) and Trayce Jackson-Davis ($3,000) could have expanded roles, since Green has played some 19% of his minutes as the Warriors’ backup center. Richard and Moody would probably benefit the most from Butler’s absence.
Regardless, any of Golden State’s players could represent good value options against a Heat defense that has struggled mightily in recent days, allowing 130 or more points in four of its last five games and posting the league’s eighth-worst defensive rating across that span. Miami also plays at the league’s fastest pace, so it has allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards, the third-most to shooting guards, the seventh-most to forwards, and the 10th-most to centers. The Heat have slipped from a 109.3 defensive rating (which would rank second in the league) to 118.2 (24th) without Bam Adebayo ($8,200), who’s missed each of the last six games and is questionable for tonight with a foot injury.
Given all of the Warriors’ injuries, Miami is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 232.5. Golden State is +270 on the Moneyline.
