The Thunder are hosting the Kings on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 18.5 points and this game carries a total of 231.5.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Thunder vs. Kings preview, prediction
The defending champion Thunder haven’t disappointed this season, leading the NBA with a 14-1 record and ranking first in net rating. Oklahoma City is one of only two teams to rank top-five in both offensive and defensive rating — with the Nuggets being the other — and the Thunder’s defense has been better than ever, as their 103.2 defensive rating is the best in the league by a mile. Ranking second is the Pistons with a 109.6 rating.
What’s most impressive about Oklahoma City’s start this season is that Jalen Williams (wrist) has yet to play. The All-Star remains without a timetable for a return, and there really isn’t a need for Williams to rush back, as the Thunder are a near perfect 27-1 with the forward inactive the last two seasons.
Led by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.9 points and 6.7 assists per game this season, Oklahoma City is a deep and sensational team that looks poised to win back-to-back championships. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are the favorites to win the 2025-26 NBA title with short +180 odds.
Conversely, the Kings have had a disastrous start to their season. The club is 3-11 and ranks 26th in net rating. Sacramento is bottom-six in both offensive and defensive rating, and the team will be without Domantas Sabonis (knee) tonight, who is averaging 17.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game this season. However, the center is only averaging 3.7 assists per game, after averaging 6.0 last season, and the Kings have actually been better with Sabonis off the floor, given the big man has been dealing with multiple injuries that have clearly effected his play.
Sabonis ranks second-to-last in plus/minus for Sacramento, and the team has been dramatically better on both ends of the floor with him off the court. For instance, the Kings’ best win of the season came with Sabonis inactive, when they defeated the Warriors by five points earlier this month. That being said, Sacramento is still only a 1.0 net rating with Sabonis off the floor, and the squad is 1-2 with him inactive this season. Included in this is a 31-point home loss to the same Thunder team the Kings will face tonight, except this time, this matchup will be in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder are absurd 52-8 the last two seasons.
DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Russell Westbrook are going to all see large usage rates with Sabonis sidelined, but the chances of these aging veterans making this a competitive affair are slim to none.
Thunder vs. Kings pick, best bet
The Thunder just destroyed the Sabonis-less Kings by 31 points in Sacramento earlier this month, and its safe to expect another blowout win for Oklahoma City tonight, especially with the club at home. Not only are the Thunder 52-8 at home the last two seasons, they are an incredible 41-17-2 ATS in Oklahoma City over this time, which is easily the best home ATS record in the NBA.
While 18.5 points is a very large spread, backing the mighty Thunder to cover this number is the right call.
