It’s officially time: Shedeur Sanders is a starting NFL quarterback. One week after making his debut in relief of the injured Dillon Gabriel in the Cleveland Browns’ 23-16 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens, Sanders is set to start his first NFL game on Sunday when the Browns travel to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. He wasn’t very good in his debut, completing just four of his 16 passes and throwing an interception, but it also came without any prior snaps with Cleveland’s first team players. He’ll get those reps in practice this week, since Gabriel remains in concussion protocol.
It’s fair to expect that, with a full week of practice reps with the first team, Sanders will look better than he did last weekend. His incompletions weren’t entirely his fault; one went down as a drop, and Pro Football Reference only graded two of his 16 throws as “bad”, which would be the seventh-lowest bad-throw rate if he’d thrown enough passes to qualify. He did a good job escaping pressure and keeping plays alive, even if he held on to the ball for too long. Even in his debut, he demonstrated more than expected as a runner and completed one impressive deep crossing route to rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
Still, while he’s earned the starting opportunity for the Browns on Sunday and for however long Gabriel remains out, he’s not worth a start in fantasy. Cleveland clearly prefers Gabriel to him, given that it used a third-round selection on the former Oregon signal-caller and only a fifth-rounder on Sanders, and Gabriel has been one of the worst passers in football, completing fewer than 60% of his passes despite having one of the most conservative pass diets in football. He also hasn’t offered much as a runner despite coming out of college as more of a dual-threat quarterback than Sanders. The Browns’ offensive line, graded by Pro Football Focus as the worst pass-blocking unit in football, hasn’t helped out Gabriel, made life difficult for Sanders in his debut, and probably won’t help him this weekend.
On paper, Las Vegas isn’t a terrible matchup, given that it has been among the worst defenses in the NFL. This season, the Raiders’ secondary has been worth the seventh-fewest expected points added and earned the second-worst PFF coverage grades. They’ve also allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, with almost all of that value coming through the air. Las Vegas also doesn’t get pressure frequently, so Sanders could have a fairly clean pocket if his offensive line can take care of Maxx Crosby. However, the Raiders’ rushing defense has also been closer to average than elite, so Kevin Stefanski will probably feel comfortable leaning on Quinshon Judkins and the run game. Las Vegas won’t put up enough points offensively to force Sanders to throw.
Start or Sit: Sit Shedeur Sanders.
