The Spurs are hosting the Grizzlies on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Antonio is favored by 5.5 points and this contest carries a total of 234.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies preview, prediction
The Spurs are off to a hot start this season with a 9-4 record and ranking sixth in net rating, but they received some bad news Monday, as superstar Victor Wembanyama is expected to miss a few weeks with a strained calf. Leading San Antonio with 26.2 points, 10.9 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game, Wembanyama was playing at MVP level. The Spurs will miss him, especially on the defensive end, as the team’s defensive rating has been 10.8 points worse with Wembanyama off the floor this season.
To put more gas on the fire, reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, who is averaging 17.3 points and 7.5 assists per game this season, will also be out Tuesday with a groin injury. At least De’Aaron Fox is back for the Spurs after missing the start of the season. The point guard will be asked to take on a large workload with both Wembanyama and Castle sidelined.
With Wembanyama inactive and Castle exiting after 15 minutes Sunday vs. the Kings, Fox led San Antonio to a 13-point win with a 28-point, 11-assist double-double. With both Wembanyama and Castle off the floor the last two seasons, Fox is leading the Spurs with a 29.6% usage rate. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson should also step up, and Luke Kornet should do a solid job as Wembanyama’s replacement at center. With Wembanyama inactive Sunday, Kornet started and posted a double-double of 13 points and 11 rebounds.
The Grizzlies are also dealing with some notable injuries, with Ja Morant sidelined with calf injury. The guard is having a weak season by his standards, averaging 17.9 PPG while shooting 36% from the field and 17% from beyond the arc, all of which are career-lows for the guard. Jaren Jackson Jr. also has taken a step backward, averaging 17.8 PPG, after averaging over 20 PPG for two straight seasons.
With their two top players struggling, the Grizzlies are 4-10 and rank 24th in net rating. Memphis’ main problem has been it’s offense, with the club ranking 26th in offensive rating and things are only going to get worse with Morant out. In the two games the guard has missed this season, the Grizzlies are averaging 99.5 PPG. One would think they would improve on defense without Morant, but that hasn’t been the case either, as in those two games with him inactive, Memphis is surrendering 124 PPG.
Jackson Jr. should see a ton of volume tonight and this is an easier matchup than usual with Wembanyama out of the picture, but the Grizzlies don’t have much fire power after Jackson Jr., with Santi Aldama, Zach Edey and Cedric Coward being their best options. All in all, Memphis is likely to be a mess on both ends of the floor, which has been the norm all season.
Spurs vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
The Grizzlies have been a disaster this season and the Spurs should get an easy win on their home floor tonight, even with Wembanyama and Castle missing.
San Antonio just proved on Sunday with a 13-point win over the Kings that it is capable of getting the job done without Wembanyama and Castle. San Antonio should be able to cover this 5.5-point spread.
