With the United States, Canada, and Mexico co-hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup, CONCACAF’s qualifying process is as open as ever, and with six slots available in the expanded format, the confederation could produce multiple tournament debutants.
Tonight at 8 p.m. ET, Jamaica and Curaçao will face off in the final qualification match at the National Stadium in Kingston, with the winner claiming a spot in the World Cup and the loser likely going to the intercontinental playoffs. A draw would see Curaçao go through. It would be the Dutch constituent country’s first appearance in the competition, while the Reggae Boyz would qualify for the second time after losing in the group stage in 1998. Elsewhere in North America, Suriname could also qualify for the first time, and Haiti could make it for the first time since 1974.
Jamaica is a -110 favorite to win and +220 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Blue Wave are +295 on the Moneyline.
Jamaica vs. Curaçao prediction, pick
At 68th in the latest FIFA World Rankings, Jamaica is the fourth-best CONCACAF team not to have automatically qualified, and two of the teams ahead of it — Group C leaders Honduras and group A runners-up Panama — are likely to snag at least an intercontinental playoff spot, so it’d be a disappointment if it didn’t qualify. During the first qualifying round, the Reggae Boyz didn’t drop a point in a group featuring Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, Dominica, and the British Virgin Islands, but the fact that they only scored eight goals against such weak opposition was a red flag.
Their vulnerability has shown in the second group stage, as they only managed a draw in Port of Spain against World No. 100 Trinidad and Tobago and lost to Curaçao in Willemstad. Still, they’ve done just enough to get themselves to the verge of qualification, and behind Tijuana striker Shemar Nicholson’s five goals, they’ve had the sixth-best attack in North America. Nizhny Novgorod midfielder Renaldo Cephas has two goals and four assists as well, ranking fourth in goal contributions, and in goal, Andre Blake is one of the better shot-stoppers in Major League Soccer. Jamaica just hasn’t done quite enough in the big moments and faces a difficult test tonight with both Roma’s Leon Bailey and West Ham’s Michail Antonio, its two most-accomplished players on paper, out.
The Blue Wave, ranked 82nd in the world, have been more convincing throughout the qualifier campaign. They made light work of a first group featuring Barbados, Aruba, St. Lucia, and Haiti and stepped up to the occasion in their biggest moment. They’ve scored three more goals than any other team, and they’ve tied with the Reggae Boyz for the seventh-fewest allowed. Persis Solo striker Gervane Kastaneer trails only Haiti’s Duckens Nazon with five goals, and three different players have distributed three assists, including captain Leandro Bacuna, whose younger brother Juninho has also managed two. In between the sticks, only Honduras’ Edrick Menjívar has managed more clean sheets than Eloy Room. Curaçao did stumble to a draw against Trinidad and Tobago in both Port of Spain and Willemstad, but they managed a 7-0 win over Bermuda in Hamilton while Jamaica only won 4-0 at the same venue.
The Blue Wave will also be without two of their best players, Konyaspor defender Riechedly Bazoer and Sheffield United midfielder Tahith Chong, but neither of them appeared the last time these two teams faced off on October 10. In that contest, Curaçao opened the scoring through a screamer from outside by the youngest player on its squad, Livano Comenencia, and halftime substitute Kenji Gorré put the game away after a nice cut-back in the 68th minute, holding on to win when Richard King’s 90th-minute equalizer was overturned by VAR. It was a master-class by Room, who made save after save, and the Reggae Boyz missed a few simple chances.
As unlikely as that win may have been, I like the Blue Wave to do it again. Needing a win, Jamaica will be pressing from the start, while a low-scoring draw would be enough for the visitors to advance. All of the pressure from the home crowd will be on Jamaica to find a way through Curaçao’s back line, and pressure can lead to mistakes, especially without the steadying veteran presence of Bailey and Antonio. There were also expectations on the Reggae Boyz to qualify, while merely making the playoffs is, in itself, a win for the Blue Wave. Unless Jamaica demonstrates better fortitude than it has throughout this qualifier campaign, Curaçao will be the smallest country ever to appear at the World Cup.
