Through the first five weeks of his tenure with the Pittsburgh Steelers, it looked like D.K. Metcalf’s divorce with the Seattle Seahawks was working out well for him. The veteran wideout caught a touchdown pass in four of his first five games to establish himself as a fantasy WR1 as he developed chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, and Pittsburgh got off to a 4-1 start. Since then, though, the Steelers have hit a rough patch, losing three of their last five games, and Metcalf hasn’t found paydirt in nearly a month.
Headed into Week 12, Pittsburgh is in a precarious position. The red-hot Baltimore Ravens, now fully healthy with a two-time MVP at the helm, are just one game behind the Steelers and hold the tiebreaker, with both games between the two still to be played. Rodgers’ status is also up in the air: the 42-year-old sustained a small fracture in his left wrist in Pittsburgh’s 34-12 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, and while he wants to play, he’ll need to be cleared for for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. If Rodgers can’t play, Mason Rudolph would be the Steelers’ starting quarterback.
The quarterback uncertainty can’t help Metcalf, whose week-to-week production has been inconsistent. As recently as Pittsburgh’s Week 8 loss to the Green Bay Packers, he had five catches for 55 yards and a score, but the following week, he managed only six yards, tied for the third-worst single-game output of his career. The Steelers are using him differently than the Seattle Seahawks ever did, as his 10.8-yard average depth of target is the shallowest of his career and his 8.4 yards after the catch per reception a career-high, but he’s received the second-least cushion at the line of scrimmage and generated the 17th-least separation, limiting him from using his speed in open space. Even his league-best performance after the catch relative to expectations hasn’t been enough to make him a fantasy asset as of late.
In part, his mediocre production can be tied to the Pittsburgh’s depth and his quarterback’s style. Rodgers tends to be pretty egalitarian with his targets, as seven different players — including two running backs and three tight ends — have garnered at least 25 targets this season. Like Metcalf, all of these pass-catchers turn shallow targets into big gains after the catch, forcing defenses to pay attention to the Steelers’ entire offense instead of zeroing in on one top target. In that respect, it might be better for Metcalf’s fantasy prospects for Pittsburgh to start Rudolph, targeted Metcalf thrice in the span of four throws in the second half and accounted for 28 of his 49 yards, and has thrown more intended air yards per attempt throughout his career than Rodgers has in the past two seasons.
He’s not a WR1 in the Steelers’ system regardless of the quarterback, but he could still be fantasy-viable as a WR2 or FLEX play against the Bears, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, including the fourth-most receiving touchdowns. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, Chicago’s top outside cornerback, Nahshon Wright, has ranked just 78th of 110 cornerbacks in coverage, so Metcalf should be able to feast. Still, either Rodgers or Rudolph will have to be more aggressive through the air to maximize Metcalf’s production against the Bears, who have been among the league’s best at limiting yards after the catch and have missed among the fewest tackles.
