I’m not sure how often you get a must-win game in Week 11, but the Cowboys really need a victory on Monday Night Football. At 3-5-1, any dream Dallas had of taking down the NFC East in 2025 is out the window, yet the team can remain alive in the Wild Card hunt with a solid performance over the lowly Raiders this evening. Still, with how loaded the NFC North and NFC West are, it might all be fool’s gold in Jerry World.
That said, this is all pretty big picture stuff and that’s not what this article is all about. We’re micro, not macro. Let’s put all the narrative to the side and instead break down who is going to find the end zone first on MNF. I’ll even toss in a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cowboys vs. Raiders First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Javonte Williams First Touchdown Scorer (+425)
Let’s just say there’s a very good reason for Javonte Williams and Ashton Jeanty (+500) having the shortest odds to score this game’s opening touchdown. Only three running backs in the NFL have seen at least 70% of their team’s rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line so far this season: Williams, Jeanty and Christian McCaffrey. In fact, with a 76.9% share, Jeanty has the clearest high-leverage monopoly in the league. Despite that, I think Williams is the better bet. It’s just a matter of volume over efficiency. While no other player has pilfered a carry from Jeanty when the Raiders are inside the opponent’s five-yard line — the Raiders simply aren’t in that position all that often. Las Vegas is averaging only 2.6 red zone drives per game, which is tied with the Saints for the sixth-lowest mark in football. Conversely, the Cowboys have 3.8 red zone trips per contest, which is the seventh-most in the NFL. That’s the quickest way to explain why Williams has found the end zone eight times on the ground this season compared to Jeanty’s four rushing touchdowns. Williams is also extremely consistent. He’s scored six touchdowns in his past six starts.
Tyler Lockett First Touchdown Scorer (+2200)
I’m a little surprised to see Tyler Lockett this far down the odds list. Yes, the 33-year-old wideout has yet to step foot in the end zone this season, but Lockett’s circumstances have changed tremendously in the past couple of weeks. After asking for his release from the Titans, Lockett signed on with the Raiders to once again play under head coach Pete Carroll. That didn’t lead to a lot of work in Week 9 against the Jaguars, but more transactions were on the horizon. Las Vegas traded No. 1 wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to Jacksonville the following week, which left Lockett in a major role on Thursday Night Football versus the Broncos. He’d respond by logging a 56.7% snap share and leading the Raiders in targets (6), receptions (5) and receiving yards (44). Listed at 5’10, Lockett isn’t your typical red zone threat, yet he does rank seventh among active WRs in career touchdowns (66). This is a man who knows how to find pay dirt and I’d only expect his opportunities to increase in his third game with his new squad.
