There was once a time when the Raiders were a good football. But that was when they were in Oakland, Y2K just happened and the dot com bubble burst. From 2000 to 2002, the Raiders won double-digit games in every season, made the playoffs every year and even made a Super Bowl. Over that same period, Dallas lost double-digit games every season.
Now, both teams stink.
Las Vegas has won only two games while Dallas has won three with one tie. At least Dallas has been potent on offense, posting the ninth-best EPA per dropback and ninth-best EPA per carry. Dak Prescott has completed 69.3 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns with six interceptions. The 114 first downs thrown lead the league. The rushing attack is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scored 10 touchdowns.
The Las Vegas run defense has been decent, producing the 12th-best EPA per carry with 3.8 yards per carry allowed, but the unit has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns. The pass defense, though, has allowed the 10th-highest EPA per dropback and racked up 19 sacks, but only 12 passing touchdowns have been allowed with six interceptions.
The Raiders offense has truly been a black hole, especially on the ground. The Raiders are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and scored four times. The EPA per dropback is the lowest in the league by a wide margin. Ashton Jeanty is a great running back, but the offensive line has truly been offensive. Through the air hasn’t been much better with the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, only 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. At least Geno Smith is no longer leading the league in interceptions. yippee…
This week, though, could be a stoppable force vs. a moveable object scenario because the Dallas defense has been so bad that I’ve heard the NFL is making new uniforms: allas Cowboys.
The Cowboys defense has allowed the third-highest EPA per carry with 11 touchdowns and 4.8 yards per carry. The pass defense has also allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DAL -3.5 over LV with the total at 49.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (DAL @ LV)
Captain’s Picks
Ashton Jeanty ($15,000 CP): The Raiders are home dogs and playing in Las Vegas doesn’t give the Raiders much of a home field advantage, as I’d expect at least half of the stadium donning Cowboys gear. That said, the Raiders are going to feed him for as long as they can. Dallas is tops in pressure rate while Smith has been susceptible to turnovers. In addition, the Cowboys have a potent offense so keeping them off the field and controlling the clock will likely be a high priority. Jeanty has put up double-digit FPTS five times this season with a high of 37.5 FPTS. Jeanty has also garnered five targets in each of the last two games and Dallas has one of the worst run defenses in the league, although the new additions could have a positive effect.
UTIL Plays
WR Tyler Lockett ($3,400): Since being acquired two weeks ago, Lockett has played 30% and 57% of the snaps, garnering six targets last week, which led the Raiders last week. He has chemistry with Smith from their time in Seattle, so the target floor should be relatively high. There is a chance that this game turns into a shootout, which could provide a ceiling outcome.
WR Ryan Flournoy ($4,600): Flournoy only received two targets last week, but he did score a touchdown. Most importantly, though, is that he was in on 67% of the snaps.
TE Michael Mayer ($4,000): Brock Bowers is THE guy at tight end for the Raiders. Scratch that. Bowers is THE guy for the Raiders. But Mayer has played 83% and 62% of the snaps over the last two weeks playing alongside Bowers. Mayer garnered seven and four targets over that span with two red zone opportunities.
Fades
Geno Smith ($8,800): My story is that the Raiders try and ground-and-pound their way to victory, especially since Smith is turnover prone while the Cowboys are excellent at pressuring the quarterback. Smith has finished below 10 FPTS five times this season.
THE OUTCOME
I think both offenses have success in this one, with the Raiders playing spirited ball in this one on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Final Score: Raiders 27, Cowboys 24
