It’s been a weird season for some of 2024’s star rookies in their second seasons. Jayden Daniels has suffered three separate injuries, Malik Nabers tore his ACL, Ladd McConkey started off the season slow before turning it on recently, and Brian Thomas Jr. has struggled to re-establish his chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. To make matters worse, Thomas missed the Jacksonville Jaguars’ loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10 with an ankle injury and has been a limited participant in practice headed into Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s officially been listed as questionable.
Despite a severely limited receiving corps hurt by the injuries to Thomas and second overall pick Travis Hunter, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair an LCL injury, Jacksonville managed to score 29 points last weekend against the Texans, but no receiver managed more than 41 yards. The Jaguars’ offense was unimpressive, buoyed only by a Parker Washington punt return touchdown, and the fourth quarter was a disaster in which Lawrence threw for zero passing yards. Thomas would provide a huge boost if he’s able to play on Sunday.
His stats have been pretty mediocre all season, as his catch rate is tied for 11th-to-last among 195 qualified receivers and his success rate is the 18th-worst. He’s also dropped nine passes already after dropping just seven last season, for a 15.0% drop rate that is the fourth-worst in football. There have still been some positives — he has gained 0.1 yards more per reception after the catch than expected — but his ceiling is capped by the fact that he’s generated a below-average amount of separation. Part of the issue is that he’s been predominantly used on deeper routes, with the 27th-deepest average depth of target, and Lawrence has been a poor deep passer this season, completing just eight of his 35 throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield.
Thomas might have must-start status against a bad defense, but the Chargers’ secondary isn’t that. This season, Los Angeles has held wide receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points per game, including the seventh-fewest yards, third-fewest yards per attempt, and the third-fewest touchdowns. The Chargers’ secondary has also produced the fourth-most expected points and has earned the fourth-best coverage grades by Pro Football Focus’ grading standards. Donte Jackson and Tarheeb Still are a pretty strong outside cornerback duo, with Still allowing an 82.0 passer rating in coverage and Jackson a 53.7.
