Week 12 of the college football season has arrived with the playoffs on the horizon and about three-quarters of the regular season already having passed. The Indiana Hoosiers are a team with their full sights on these CFB playoffs and will face the Wisconsin Badgers this week.
These programs have faced off 63 times in their history. Wisconsin has won 41 times, with two ties occurring in the past. However, Indiana has won the past two matchups, with the previous being in 2023, and the program is in the midst of their best-ever season.
Looking at the odds for this year, Indiana enters as a 28.5-point favorite and holds -5000 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Wisconsin holds +1800 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 43.5.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 12 matchup.
Wisconsin vs. Indiana prediction, preview
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin has dropped to 3-6 on the season and is 1-5 in Big Ten conference play. They did manage to snap a six-game losing streak last week by defeating Washington. While the raw record is certainly not impressive, the losses have come at the hands of Alabama, Maryland, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, and Oregon. The Badgers are 4-5 against the spread on the season.
During last week’s victory over Washington, Wisconsin trailed 10-3 heading into halftime. They battled back to produce a 13-10 win despite the team recording just 48 total passing yards in the matchup. Quarterback play has been inconsistent all season for Wisconsin, and the outlook further worsened last week. Danny O’Neil has been the primary quarterback this year, completing 67.8% of his pass attempts for 635 yards, five touchdowns, and five interceptions. But O’Neil suffered an Achilles injury in the upset over Washington and was carted off in the first quarter. Hunter Simmons is second on the roster in quarterback production. But, he has completed just 50.5% of his pass attempts for 485 passing yards, two touchdowns, and five interceptions. Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr. has also spent some time under center, but has not been adequate either.
This incompetence at the quarterback position has watered down the entire offense this year for Wisconsin. Vinny Anthony is the team’s leading receiver at just 291 yards on the season, while Lance Mason has a team-high three receiving touchdowns and 281 yards through the air. No other pass catcher has more than 165 yards tallied. Dillin Jones is the team’s leading rusher with 300 yards and two scores on the ground.
Wisconsin ranks 135th out of 136 FBS teams in scoring by averaging just 12.6 points per game. They are generating just 255.6 total yards of offense. The Badgers have been held scoreless twice and to 10 or fewer points in five games. Defensively, opponents are scoring 22.3 points per game, which ranks 54th among D1 teams. The Badgers are conceding 330.9 average yards of offense per game.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has played itself into legitimate National Championship contenders and are second behind only Ohio State at +500 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are second in the AP Poll with a perfect 10-0 record on the year. The Hoosiers did get a bit of a scare last week, edging out a victory over Penn State 27-24. This was their closest loss all season and put a dent in their college football-leading +27.9 average margin of victory. Indiana is 6-4 against the spread this year.
Fernando Mendoza is the center of the production and has climbed to the second-best odds of winning the Heisman Trophy at +185 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mendoza has completed 71.3% of his pass attempts for 2,342 passing yards, a college football-best 26 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions, along with 240 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Omar Cooper Jr. posts a team-high 701 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, while Elijah Sarratt has a Big Ten-best 10 receiving scores along with 609 yards through the air. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black lead the rushing attack with adding 650+ rushing yards on the ground, and five touchdowns each.
Indiana leads the country at 44.5 points per game and is generation 487.0 average yards of offense. They also have had success defensively, limiting opponents to just 12.1 points per game, which is the second best rate among D1 teams. This includes just 257.1 average yards of offense including just 83.7 rushing yards allowed per game.
Wisconsin vs. Indiana pick, best bet
Wisconsin has been a tough watch all season, and this will be further maximized by the injury to Danny O’Neil. They have scored fewer than 15 points in seven games and 10 or fewer in three five games.
Indiana is exactly the type of team to exploit this and has held opponents to 15 or fewer points in eight of the 10 games this year. But offensively is where things will truly get ugly. There has been some concern regarding the previous narrow victory over Penn State. While it has been a disastrous season in Happy Valley, it should not be completely ignored that this is still a team that opened the season ranked second in the preseason AP Poll. Drew Allar went down for the season, and James Franklin has been fired, but that is still a roster loaded with talent in the trenches. It was still a disappointing effort by Indiana’s bar of expectations, but not one that should cause a full re-evaluation of how good the team is.
Indiana is 3-1 against the spread as four-score favorites this season. This will also be the final home game of their historic season and they are 6-2 against the spread against conference opponents at home. Curt Cignetti does not want to just beat teams, he wants to blow them out completely. Expect last week to be a bit of a wake up call and for the Hoosiers to get back to their typical level of offensive production. They have put up 50+ points in five games this season and have gotten off to strong starts to games for most of the year. Wisconsin has hardly shown a pulse offensively and will not be able to match this level of output when Indiana gets off and running. The Badgers did not look like a D1 quality team following the quarterback injury last week, and will have a similar outlook against a much tougher Indiana defense.
This is a perfect opportunity for Indiana to produce a dominant victory in a get-right spot. Expect them to pour on points early and for Fernando Mendoza to have a great chance to add to his Heisman campaign. 28.5 is a notable spread, but one that the Hoosiers are plenty capable of eclipsing. Expect Indiana to shake off last week’s struggles and produce a convincing win by 29+ points.
