Most analysts entered the season expecting the Western Conference standings to be clumped, and so far, they have been. While the Oklahoma City Thunder have easily led the West with a 12-1 record, just two games separate the third-seeded San Antonio Spurs and the ninth-seeded Golden State Warriors (who will play tonight) in the standings.
Two of those teams in that morass are the fourth-seeded Houston Rockets and the eighth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. They’ll face each other tonight in southeastern Texas at 8 p.m. ET in the first in each team’s second game of Emirates NBA Cup West Group C action. Houston is 0-1 after losing to San Antonio, while Portland edged out a two-point victory over the Denver Nuggets.
The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 236.5. The Trail Blazers are +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets preview, prediction
After being the first man off the All-NBA teams last season, Houston center Alperen Şengün seems determined to do one better this season. The 23-year-old Turk has gotten his fourth season off to a fantastic start, averaging 22.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game so far while attempting more than twice as many threes as his previous career-high and connecting at a 41.9% rate. Thanks in part to Şengün’s jumbo playmaking, the Rockets have won seven of their last eight games, with the aforementioned loss to the Spurs the only blemish. It’s not just Şengün, though; Kevin Durant has shot the ball as well as ever, and last season’s third overall pick, Reed Sheppard, is starting to round into his own.
For Portland, Deni Avdija has been the breakout star. The six-foot-nine wing averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game after the All-Star break last season for an uncompetitive Trail Blazers team, and he’s taken yet another leap in the early part of the season, averaging 26.1 points, 6.3 boards, and 4.6 assists per game. He’s had to carry a heavy share of the scoring burden, as Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan have all been fairly inefficient. On the bright side, Jrue Holiday has been a much-needed veteran presence and Jerami Grant has produced the second-best efficiency of his career.
Trail Blazers at Rockets pick, best bet
Houston has the league’s best offensive rating in large part because it has rebounded an incredible 41.1% of its missed shots, which would be the highest mark in NBA history across a full season. The Rockets start an ultra-big lineup, with six-foot-seven Amen Thompson, six-foot-four Josh Okogie, six-foot-11 Durant, six-foot-11 Jabari Smith Jr., and six-foot-11 Şengün, and six-foot-eight Tari Eason and six-foot-11 Steven Adams come off the bench. Just as they were late last season, Adams and Şengün have been a devastating duo, throttling opponents by 17.3 points per 100 possessions, and the duo has been even better when paired with Thompson. Houston has regressed a tiny bit on defense, falling from fifth in 2024-25 to seventh so far this season, but it’s more than good enough when combined with the best offense in NBA history.
On paper, the Trail Blazers aren’t well-suited to slow down the Rockets’ well-oiled machine. While they rank 14th in total rebounding percentage, they rank just 20th in rebounds overall, in part because they’ve allowed opponents to shoot the third-highest percentage from the field. Overall, Portland ranks just 14th in defensive rating despite finishing third on that side of the ball across the last 41 games of the 2024-25 season. Neither Camara nor Clingan has played his usually elite defense, and Clingan’s total rebounding percentage has dropped from 21.6% in his rookie season to just 19.8% so far in 2025-26. After allowing the seventh-lowest percentage at the rim in the second half last season, the Trail Blazers’ paint defense has regressed slightly, though they’ve still been solid, ranking near the league average in terms of preventing both points in the paint and second chance points. On offense, the Rockets rank seventh in points in the paint and — naturally — lead the league in second chance points.
Still, despite some slight defensive regression and mediocrity on the glass, Portland has enough to pull off the upset. The Trail Blazers have been sharp getting downhill, averaging the fifth-most points in the paint and scoring the most baskets per game in the restricted area. That’s an area in which Houston has actually struggled; the Rockets have allowed the 11th-highest percentage at the rim, in part because Şengün and Durant (at this stage in the latter’s career) are somewhat limited athletically. Houston has also coughed up the fourth-most turnovers, and Portland ranks fourth in steals, third in points off of turnovers, and fourth in deflections. But the Trail Blazers’ defensive aggression has a downside: they’ve committed the fourth-most fouls, and the Rockets have drawn the fourth-most.
Houston has benefited tremendously from shooting luck this season. So far, the Rockets have converted wide-open threes at a league-best 48.3% rate despite producing the seventh-fewest uncontested attempts, while Portland has generated the second-most wide-open tries while converting at the third-lowest rate. Defensively, Houston has also allowed the second-most wide-open threes, while the Trail Blazers have given up the seventh-fewest. It’s hard to imagine that luck continuing for too much longer: Camara is at 32.7% this season on uncontested looks after canning them at a 38.2% rate last season, Grant’s accuracy has fallen from 39.1% to 36.7%, and Holiday has dropped from 40.6% to 28.6% so far. Meanwhile, Sheppard and Eason won’t continue to connect at rates north of 60%. Opponents have also shot the highest percentage from the free throw line against Portland and the lowest against the Rockets. The Trail Blazers have also done a great job forcing inefficient midrange tries…and opponents have canned nearly half of them.
While luck is a real factor in the NBA and can carry a team through an entire season — for instance, the Thunder benefited from opponents shooting the lowest percentage on wide-open threes throughout their eventual title run last season — Houston has gotten so fortunate and Portland so unfortunate that something has to give at some point. I’ll still favor the Rockets on the Moneyline because of their rebounding and discipline edges, but the Trail Blazers are a legitimate playoff team and should easily cover the spread.
