The NFL’s Week 11 slate stands out as one with several intriguing matchups, but the one with the biggest playoff implications is the 4:05 p.m. ET game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are 7-2, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for the best record in the NFC, though Seattle holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles by virtue of its better winning percentage within the division and Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker over both of teams. But with the NFC West rivals set to face off twice over the final eight weeks of the season, anything can happen.
The Rams’ offensive hierarchy is clear: Matthew Stafford throwing the ball to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is Plan A, with Kyren Williams garnering approximately two-thirds of the rushes and Blake Corum handling the rest. For the Seahawks, it’s much less obvious: while Sam Darnold has a great connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle has no clear WR2 and Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have split snaps in the backfield for the third straight season, with Walker garnering 13.3 carries per game and Charbonnet 11.8. Despite Walker’s slight edge in overall responsibility, Charbonnet has scored six total touchdowns to Walker’s three, garnering one more carry within the red zone as Walker has and seven more within the 10-yard line.
All in all, Walker has been slightly better this season. While his 45.0% success rate only ekes out Charbonnet’s by 0.3 percentage points, his 4.5-YPC average ranks a solid 21st among 48 qualified ball-carriers, while Charbonnet’s 3.3 yards per carry rank dead last. While the Seahawks’ offensive line, which ranks just 15th by Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades, hasn’t helped either out much, Walker has gained 0.01 yards per carry more than expected, while Charbonnet has lost 0.64 yards per carry relative to expectations. In part, that’s because he’s faced stacked boxes more frequently than Walker has, but context is irrelevant for fantasy, and Walker has simply produced better numbers, averaging more 0.1 more FPTS per game despite scoring fewer touchdowns. He has a higher ceiling because of his explosive play ability: he has recorded six rushes of 20 or more yards this season, tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. Charbonnet has only had one.
Regardless, I don’t like either running back against Los Angeles. This season, the Rams have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and their run defense ranks second by PFF grades and eighth by expected points added. They’ve allowed the eighth-fewest yards per carry, which won’t be good for either running back’s efficiency, and they’ve also missed the second-fewest tackles in the league — which should especially impact Charbonnet, who breaks tackles more frequently than Walker. Charbonnet more frequently takes it up the middle than Walker, and Los Angeles’ best run defenders tend to line up in the interior, but it has plenty of playmakers on the outside, too.
