From 1994 to 2021, the New England Patriots experienced a run of epic proportions and consistency, having only three head coaches over that span, finishing with a winning record in 25 of 28 seasons, making the playoffs 22 times and winning the Super Bowl six times. Then Father Time took away Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have had three coaches over the last four seasons and a losing record in three….until now.
The play of Drake Maye and the excellent defense have catapulted the Patriots back into prominence. New England has won seven straight and is now 8-2 on the season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
New England is fourth in EPA per dropback. Maye is third in completion percentage at 71.7% and has thrown 19 touchdowns with five interceptions. He’s also rushed 66 times for 283 yards and two touchdowns. The running game isn’t so good, though, as the EPA per carry is 25th with 4.1 yards per carry. New England has scored 10 times on the ground but the 36 sacks taken by Maye is the second-most in the league.
The defense has been one of the best in the league thanks to Mike Vrabel and offseason acquisitions, especially on the defensive line. The run defense is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry and offenses have punched it in only three times. The EPA per carry is sixth-best. The pass defense is posting the 12th-best EPA per dropback. The unit has allowed 18 touchdowns and intercepted seven passes, but shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez missed the first three weeks of the season.
As for the Jets, from 1994 until now, New York has had an epic run of ineptitude, producing a winning season in only 11 of 32 seasons, making the playoffs only seven times and they have had 13 different head coaches. The Jets lost the first seven games of this season before inexplicably winning the last two games, despite trading away their best players on defense.
The offense has been laughably bad, posting the seventh-worst EPA per carry and seventh-worst EPA per dropback. Gotta respect the consistency. Justin Fields has thrown fewer than 55 yards in a game four times! He’s only thrown one interception. Yippee!!! But he has a total of six touchdowns on the season. Fields has rushed 60 times for 316 yards and three touchdowns. Yippee!!! The Patriots defense has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and have not allowed a rushing touchdown to the position.
On defense, New York has the eighth-highest EPA per carry and seventh-highest EPA per dropback. Once again, have to admire the consistency. And the bulk of those numbers were with their best defensive players. Granted, maybe they had checked out anyways and the infusion of young tal….Yeah, I’m not going there. There could be more energy but the drop in talent is significant.
DraftKings Sportsbook has New England favored by 12.5 points at home with the total set at 43.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NYJ @ NE)
Captain’s Picks
TreVeyon Henderson ($15,900 CP): Henderson had been in the Vrabel doghouse for much of the season, but Rhamondre Stevenson getting injured a few weeks ago allowed him to press the button to the penthouse. Ding. 14 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns in Week 10 with an 84% snap share, good for 31 FPTS. Vrabel spoke positively about Henderson in the postgame and Stevenson has already been ruled out for this one. The Jets also have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
UTIL Plays
Drake Maye ($12,000): It’s Patriots onslaught time and I want access to all the points. The volume likely won’t be robust due to the likely ineptitude of the Jets offense, but the efficiency should be sky-high. Maye has thrown multiple touchdowns in the last five games and has rushing equity.
Patriots DST ($6,600): New England is only 23rd in pressure rate but the unit has still racked up 22 sacks. With one of the best rush defenses in the league with an offense that will likely put up points, the Jets will likely tilt towards the air on offense, which should provide plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers. The Patriots DST has put up double-digit FPTS four times this season with a high of 19 FPTS.
Mason Taylor ($4,000): Gotta play one Jets player. I’m not expecting much from any Jets offensive player and with the bad quarterback play and an injured wide receiving group, Taylor could get peppered with short targets irrespective of who is under center for New York.
Fades
Breece Hall ($10,200): Hall is a great talent but the situation is just so bad for him. He has performed admirably over the last two games, though, putting up 19.5 and 35.9 FPTS. One of those games was against the Charmin-soft Bengals defense while the other was against a stout Browns defense. The Patriots run defense is one of the best and the game script will likely remove Hall from the game, as the Patriots offense will likely be putting up points in this one and Hall hasn’t been too involved in the passing game despite possessing receiving chops.
THE OUTCOME
Patriots onslaught. That said, I said Broncos onslaught last week and we saw how that turned out. Thursday Night Football.
Final Score: Jets 9, Patriots 31
