The Mavericks are hosting the Suns on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 227.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Suns preview, prediction
The Mavericks have had a rocky start to their season with a 3-8 record and ranking 25th in net rating. Dallas has been stout defensively, ranking third in defensive rating, but the team has been terrible on the other side of the ball, ranking dead last in offensive rating. No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg has been solid, but not great, averaging 15.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. P.J. Washington is also averaging 15.5 PPG, but after Flagg and Washington, the Mavericks have had major issues finding any offense with Anthony Davis (calf) out for the last six games.
Davis is leading Dallas with 20.8 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in his five starts this season and while there was some hope he would return tonight after being listed as questionable, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon is reporting that Davis will remain sidelined.
The Mavericks have only won one of these past six games with Davis out and that victory came against the 1-10 Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive rating this season. Things have been ugly for Dallas without its star big man and it’s hard to imagine much changing tonight with the much-improved Suns in town.
After a rough start to the season, dropping four of its first five, Phoenix has been playing much better as of late, winning five of its last six. The Suns sit at 6-5 and they rank 15th in net rating for the season, despite Jalen Green (out, hamstring) only playing in essentially 1.5 games. The team has been average on both sides of the ball, ranking 16th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating.
With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal departing this summer, Devin Booker is back to being the Suns’ alpha and he has delivered, ranking eighth in the NBA in scoring at 28.4 PPG on 50% shooting, both of which are career-highs for the Kentucky product. Booker has also been a strong facilitator, leading Phoenix with 6.8 assists per game. After Booker, Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks have stepped up with Green sidelined for most of this season, with both Allen and Brooks averaging right around 18 PPG.
The Suns heavily rely on their outside shooting, ranking third in three-pointers made (16.5) on the fourth-most attempts per game (42.7). On the other side, the Mavericks have been strong at defending outside shooters, giving up the fewest made three-pointers in the league (10.9), so something has to give in this matchup.
Mavericks vs. Suns pick, best bet
Good offense usually beats good defense and the Suns should be able to defeat the struggling Mavericks tonight, even with this game being in Dallas.
Phoenix is a great 7-4 ATS this season and the Suns are a strong bet to cover this 1.5-point spread.
