The Lightning will play host to the Rangers tonight at Benchmark International Arena, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lightning are -140 home favorites on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals. Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy are expected to start between the pipes.
Below, I’ll provide a preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s tilt between the Lightning and Rangers.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Rangers prediction, preview
Lightning preview
Tampa Bay enters Wednesday having won seven of its last eight games, while averaging 3.5 goals per game and just 2.1 goals against per game. The strong play was necessary for the Lightning, considering the club dropped six of its first seven games of the season. Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely draw his 12th start of the season, and he has been solid with a 5-4-2 record, 2.64 GAA and .908 SV%. He ranks 16th out of 73 eligible goaltenders in goals saved above expected.
The Lightning’s usual high-flying offensive attack isn’t so high-flying this season. The club ranks 16th in goals per 60, despite ranking third in xGoals per 60. That suggests that positive regression is likely on its way, and the club has been better at even strength, ranking 12th in 5v5 goals per 60 and eighth in 5v5 xGoals%. 29 of Tampa Bay’s 46 goals have been scored when playing at even strength and the club ranks 20th in PP%. Luckily, Tampa Bay is tied with Buffalo for the best PK% in the NHL.
Rangers preview
The Rangers have had a disappointing start to the season, sitting in 11th place in the Eastern Conference with an 8-7-2 record. While the club has won five of its last seven games, the inconsistencies have been eye-opening. New York will give Igor Shesterkin his 14th start of the season, who has been great, despite his 5-6-2 record. Shesterkin sports a 2.46 GAA and .909 SV%, and he ranks 18th in goals saved above expected. New York’s big guns, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and J.T. Miller, have been a bit quiet, totaling a combined nine points across the last five games.
Considering New York ranks fourth-best in goals against per 60, it’s shocking that this club has struggled this much. Despite numerous elite offensive pieces, the Rangers rank second-to-last in goals per 60, with that ranking increasing by just seven spots when playing at even strength. The special teams play has been underwhelming, too. The club ranks third-to-last in PP% and dead last in power play goals scored. Luckily, the PK% ranks 13th in the NHL, but killing penalties doesn’t make much of a difference when you can’t score goals in the first place.
Lightning vs. Rangers pick, best bet
It’s good news for the Rangers that they’ll be playing on the road tonight because their home/road splits are laughable. These two teams have had weird starts to the new season, but the one constant on both sides is elite goaltending. Both the Lightning and Rangers rank in the bottom half of the league in goals per 60, despite stacked rosters. If the Rangers were playing at home, I’d love the under 5.5 goal total a lot. Given the recent play from both Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin, I’ll ride with it regardless, especially at plus odds. 43% of the handle and 29% of the bets lie with the under, and I love a good public fade.
