UPDATE: Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (right knee soreness) has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
On the opening day of the season, the Philadelphia 76ers back-court of VJ Edgecombe and Tyrese Maxey combined for 74 points in a one-point win over the Boston Celtics. Boston returned that favor four games later by beating the 76ers by one point.
The teams are set to face off for the third and penultimate time this season tonight at 8 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. As it stands, the 76ers are tied for sixth in the conference and the Celtics are tied for 10th, but there’s a lot of basketball to be played.
The game is basically a pure toss-up. Philadelphia is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-118 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 231.5. Boston is -102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s divisional clash.
Joel Embiid O22.5 Points (-102)
Embiid hasn’t played much this season as he continues to recover from a knee injury, but when he’s played, he’s been close to his typically spectacular self. His efficiency is down a bit — his 46.0% field goal percentage this season would be the second-lowest mark of his career — but he’s still averaged an elite 30.3 points per 36 minutes. He’s also coming off of his best performance of the season, a 29-point effort in a season-high 26 minutes against the Toronto Raptors on Saturday, and since he didn’t play Sunday in the second night of a back-to-back, he should be well-rested. As long as he plays somewhere around 25 minutes and posts his typical 34.6% usage rate — which would rank fourth in the league if he’d played enough minutes to qualify — he should score at least 23 points.
Even in the absence of Jayson Tatum, the Celtics’ defense has been pretty good this season, ranking 13th in defensive rating and conceding the second-fewest points overall because of their slow pace. Still, while they’ve done a good job stopping opposing players from getting to the rim, they’ve been vulnerable once in the restricted area, allowing a merely league-average field goal percentage. Boston’s lack of a reliable center has been felt on the boards: it has allowed the fifth-most offensive rebounds and second-most second chance points per game so far this season. The Celtics also foul a lot, and Embiid is the all-time career leader in made free throws per game.
Anfernee Simons 3+ Three-Pointers Made (-130)
After Boston acquired him in the Jrue Holiday deal over the summer, Simons has had an up-and-down first 11 games in Celtics green and white. He started off slow, making just 29.4% of his threes across his first three games amid a squad-wide shooting slump. Ever since then, though, he’s picked it up, canning his triples at a 44.4% clip across his last eight games and making three or more in six of eight games, including each of his last three. The last time he faced the 76ers, the 26-year-old scored 23 points and made three of his nine attempts from beyond the arc.
He should have a great opportunity to continue his hot shooting against Philadelphia, which has been a roughly league-average unit by most metrics but has allowed opponents to enjoy a pretty efficient shot diet. So far this season, opponents have launched the 10th-most three-point attempts against the 76ers, including the sixth-most wide-open triples. Philadelphia has gotten exceptionally lucky that it has conceded the eighth-lowest percentage on such shots, but that luck is unlikely to continue against Simons, who has converted at the fifth-highest rate among the 59 players trying three or more wide-open triples per game. His 51.1% mark is due to regress, but he still hit a solid 41.8% of those shots last season.
Derrick White 2+ Steals (+136)
Despite some putrid offense — 33.9% from the field and 27.1% from beyond the arc — White has been on an absolute tear defensively, recording three steals in each of his last four games, and so far, his 2.0 steals per game and 3.0% steal percentage would easily be a career high. He also ranks 21st in the league in deflections and 22nd in total defensive distance covered this season, so he’s been hustling this season. He’s also averaging a career-low turnover rate and his second-lowest foul rate, which should keep him on the floor.
The 76ers have been about a league-average team in possession, allowing the 14th-fewest steals, but the last time these teams faced off, Boston forced Philadelphia into 18 turnovers, and White, Payton Pritchard, and Hugo González each recorded two steals. The 76ers’ offense is also predicated on ball movement, as they’ve attempted the second-most passes this season, and White is capable of impacting passing lanes with his long arms. This season, he’s forced Edgecombe into one turnover against one assist and Tyrese Maxey into three turnovers against two assists.
