It’s been smooth sailing for France and Ukraine through Group D. France, at the very least, has secured a spot in the next qualification stage. A win on Thursday puts them directly into the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Ukraine has pole position to make it into the next qualifying round, but a win could thrust them into an automatic qualifying position. It’s a high-stakes showdown between two World Cup hopefuls.
The odds are stacked in favor of France: Les Bleus are a -525 favorite to win and +600 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Ukraine is at +1400. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this contest.
France vs. Ukraine prediction, pick
Naturally, the French have won on the strength of Kylian Mbappe. Their superstar forward has three goals and two assists in group play. France won its first three games of group play, all but assuring their advancement, and Mbappe scored in all three contests.
But the French are not a one-man show. It’s a deep team that can build up well from the back. They have a strong midfield group between Eduardo Camavinga, Adrien Rabiot, and Kouadio KonĂ©. With Michael Olise feeding Mbappe and Bradley Barcola, they’re well set up to contend in 2026. But, first things first, they have to take care of the Ukrainians.
After losing and drawing their first two games, things looked dire for Ukraine. But they fought hard to win their last two against Iceland and Azerbaijan, and have put themselves in a position to advance. Any points from this game and a loss by Iceland would send them through to the next qualifying stage, but they’ll want to handle business themselves. If there’s a man who can get it done, it’s Ruslan Malinovsky, who has three goals and an assist through four games.
Ultimately, this is too much talent for Ukraine to contend with. That was on display in the first game of group play, a 2-0 France win. I expect a redux to push the French into the World Cup for good.
