Dylan Cease will put his strong 2024 start to the test in Colorado on Monday. While he’s new to the NL West, this isn’t the right-hander’s first trip to Coors. He made his first visit last season, striking out six over 4 2/3 innings while giving up four earned runs. Not his best outing, but still a strong strikeout output.
Opposite Cease will be Austin Gomber. After failing to get a full five frames in either of his first two outings to start 2024, the left-hander has begun taking steps in the right direction. However, he’s still been far from lights out, posting a 5.21 FIP through four starts.
With this game being at Coors, here’s a look at Gomber’s early home-road splits (as well as Cease’s) via the player pages tool in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
AUSTIN GOMBER
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DYLAN CEASE
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I’m approaching this pitching matchup a bit differently. Cease’s strikeouts prop is 7.5, with the over having +125 odds. Cease hasn’t gone over that number yet this season, but the Rockies have struck out 76 times in 263 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home (over 28% of their plate appearances vs. righites at Coors).
Gomber’s hit allowed prop is 6.5, with the over having -105 odds. Gomber hasn’t given up more than six hits yet this season, but he’s reached that number three times in four games. While the Padres are hitting just .213 against lefties to start things, they have a .526 slugging percentage against them, which is the fourth-best mark in all of baseball.
I’m more partial to Cease’s strikeouts prop if you want a straight bet, but I want to mix in a Same Game Parlay here: Cease +6 strikeouts and Gomber 6+ hits allowed at -115. A case could be made for other variations of this, but I like the mix of cushion and odds this option provides.
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*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
As for the hitters at play in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
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Quite a few Padres hitters have hits lines of 1.5, but Eguy Rosario is not among that group. It’s understandable since he may not start, but he’s a very interesting option to go over 1.5 total bases at -105 if he’s in the lineup. In his 22 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, Rosario has eight hits. Only one of those knocks has not been for extra bases.
For those looking to put together a hits Same Game Parlay, Manny Machado and Elias Diaz jump out as options. Machado may only have a .231 average against right-handed pitching this season, but his .444 OBP against them indicates lefties are being very careful with him. Gomber likely will be as well, but Coors could easily provide Machado with a little assistance. As for Diaz, he’s hitting .348 against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s not striking out against them at an overwhelming rate (11 K’s in 50 plate appearances). Pairing those two provides -125 odds. Rosario boosts the play to +150 if he gets the nod. Bunching Jake Cronenworth, who’s seen Gomber a lot, with Machado and Diaz instead brings the play to +130. All four make for a +215 Same Game Parlay.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
