The Week 10 NFL slate will kick off bright and early with a morning matchup in Berlin, Germany. The Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts will be facing off in the sixth overseas matchup of the NFL season.
Indianapolis has been one of the better stories across the NFL this year. They enter this week with a 7-2 record, with Daniel Jones succeeding in getting his NFL career back on track. However, the Colts are looking to bounce back from a 27-20 loss to the Steelers in which Jones’ turnover concerns showed face for the first time this season. The former Giants’ starter had three interceptions and lost two fumbles in the defeat.
Atlanta enters with a 3-5 record on the season with some notable ups and downs. They have had some impressive flashes, like defeating the Bills 24-14, but they also were defeated 30-0 by the Carolina Panthers and enter this week on a three-game losing skid.
Looking at the odds for this week’s matchup, the Colts enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -310 odds of winning on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons hold +250 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 48.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 10 Falcons vs. Colts matchup.
Falcons at Colts Best Prop Bets
Jonathan Taylor Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
While Daniel Jones’ resurgence has been a major storyline, Jonathan Taylor is the engine of the Colts’ offense. The former Offensive Player of the Year has played himself into the MVP conversation this year, leading the league with 895 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the season. Taylor is averaging 99.4 rushing yards per game and leading the NFL with 5.7 yards per carry. He has tallied over 93.5 rushing yards in five games this year and eclipsed 100 yards in four of these matchups.
This is a friendly matchup against a weak Falcons’ rushing defense. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed, 20th in net yards per rush attempt, and 28th in EPA per rush play. Atlanta has conceded 995 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per carry through their opening eight games.
Expect Jones’ turnover issues to reinforce the desire to keep the ball in Taylor’s hands and for him to see plenty of carries in this matchup. The 26-year-old has had at least 12 carries in every game this season and 17+ in six of the nine matchups. Taylor is coming off a season-low 45 rushing yards in the previous game, in which the team’s biggest issues were far beyond him. Expect the Colts to establish a strong running game in the early parts of this matchup and create a pathway to over 93.5 rushing yards for the sixth time this season.
Drake London Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
There have been ups and downs with the level of play from Michael Penix Jr., but Drake London has established himself as one of the top pass catchers in all of football this season. Through the seven games he has been active, the USC product has pulled in 47 receptions for 587 yards and five touchdowns. Penix Jr. targets him often, with London seeing 10+ targets in each of the past four games and five of the seven games he’s played this season.
The biggest weakness on this Colts’ roster has been its secondary. So far this season, they rank 26th in passing yards allowed compared to the fourth-fewest rushing yards conceded. Indianapolis addressed this by trading for Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline. While Gardner should help this effort, asking for an immediate impact after the short week turnaround feels unfair. Gardner will still need some time to get up to speed with the playbook and will at least be a bit limited in his Colts debut.
London is averaging 11 targets per game and 83.9 yards through the air. He is coming off 118 receiving yards last week and has tallied 110+ yards in three games this season. The Colts are nearly a touchdown favorite, and it would not be a surprise if Atlanta is forced to play from behind. This will only help the outlook for London’s receiving yards if this is how things play out. One way or another, expect London to see plenty of passing volume and record over 69.5 receiving yards for the fourth time in the past five weeks.
Daniel Jones Anytime Touchdown (+280)
Plenty of eyes will be on Daniel Jones in this matchup following last week’s turnover disaster. How he responds this week will say a lot about his future and the direction of this Colts team. But if you take away last week, it is impossible not to be thrilled with the level of production Jones has brought to the table.
One area that does not get enough attention in his skillset is Jones’ ability with his legs. The Duke product has 2,269 rushing yards and 20 rushing scores across his career, with 200+ yards on the ground in every season he was the primary starter. Atlanta has allowed 164 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season, although just one rushing score.
But Atlanta blitzes the quarterback at a high rate. Expect this to result in Jones needing to escape the pocket. He has 11 carries in the red zone already this season with five rushing scores on the year. Atlanta has also allowed the fewest overall passing yards to opponents this season with 22 sacks on the year. Expect Jones’ ability with his legs to be a necessary counter to their defensive ability, and getting +280 odds for him to reach the end zone on the ground for the sixth time this season is great value based on the context of this game.
