Kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET across the Week 11 college football slate, the Duke Blue Devils will take on the Connecticut Huskies. Both these teams have three losses on the season, but have played their best football of late and still hold optimistic outlooks for the year.
These two programs have faced off four times on the football field in their history. Each team has come out victorious twice, with Duke winning the two previous matchups in 2023 and 2024.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, Duke enters as an 8.5-point favorite and holds -325 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. UConn holds +260 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 63.5 points.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 11 matchup.
Duke vs. Connecticut prediction, preview
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils enter with a 5-3 record on the season and are 4-1 in ACC Conference play. They have gone 4-4 against the spread with the over cashing in six of their eight games. Duke has produced victories over Elon, NC State, Syracuse, California, and Clemson, while falling short to Illinois, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. They most recently produced a 46-45 victory on the road in a thriller against Clemson last week.
Darian Mensah headlines the offensive production from the quarterback spot. The Tulane transfer has completed 69.7% of his pass attempts for an ACC-best 2,572 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Nate Sheppard leads the team with 557 rushing yards and five scores, while Anderson Castle offers a team-high six rushing touchdowns with 319 yards on the ground. Cooper Barkate is posting an ACC-best 774 receiving yards with five touchdowns on the season. Shamir Hagans adds five receiving scores of his own, along with 315 yards, while Sean Brown and Andrew Anthony combined for 740 yards through the air and seven scores.
Duke is averaging 35.4 points per game, which ranks 24th in the country, and they are generating 460.3 total yards of offense. Defensively, they are giving up 389.9 total yards of offense and 28.1 points per game, which ranks 97th among qualifying D1 teams. They have tallied 18 sacks and 13 turnovers so far this year.
Connecticut Huskies
The Connecticut Huskies enter with a 6-3 record on the season and have won five of their last six. They are 4-4-1 against the spread, and the game total is 6-3 to the over across their nine matchups. The Huskies have fallen short at the hands of Syracuse, Delaware, and Rice, but have produced victories over Central Connecticut, Ball State, Buffalo, Florida International, Boston College, and UAB.
Joe Fagnano stands in at quarterback and has completed 68.8% of his pass attempts for 2,529 yards and 22 touchdowns — yet to throw an interception. He has also added two rushing scores and 91 yards with his legs. The rushing attack is headlined by Camryn Edwards, who has tallied 815 rushing yards and nine rushing scores on the season. Seven different players have tallied a rushing touchdown already this year. Skyler Bell headlines the wide receiver production with 74 catches for 994 yards and 11 scores. John Neider has 347 receiving yards and one touchdown, while Raymello Murphy and Juice Vereen have combined for seven receiving touchdowns and 520 yards through the air.
UConn is averaging 36.9 points per game, which ranks 15th among D1 teams, and is generating an average of 455.3 total yards of offense. The Huskies are allowing 391.7 average yards of offense and 23.9 points per game, the latter ranking 62nd among FBS programs. The Huskies have tallied 33 sacks and forced 11 turnovers on the season.
Duke vs. Connecticut pick, best bet
Duke and UConn are constructed relatively similarly, with a high-powered offense and some defensive concerns. They also are in good form of late, entering with records of 4-1 and 5-1 over their past five and six games, respectively.
My lean is toward the 8.5-point spread being slightly too large for the home underdog Huskies in this matchup. They have not lost in regulation this season, with their losses to Syracuse and Delaware each coming in overtime, and their loss to Rice being in double overtime. All three of these have stayed within the 8.5-point spread. Connecticut has also won each of its last six home games and covered the spread in six of its last seven home games in November.
But I am backing the game total to go over the 63.5 point total. Duke has scored 38+ points in each of its victories this season and has only been held below 27 points in two games. Connecticut has only been held below 31 points in two games this year and tallied as many as 59 points in a game this season, individually. If these two teams are just to hit their average, the game total would finish at 72.3 points per game.
Neither defense has reliably shown to be capable of shutting down opponents, and expect both sides to have high levels of offensive success. Seven of UConn’s last eight November games have gone over the points total, while each of Duke’s last five games against non-conference opponents have gone over. Expect Darian Mensah and Joe Fagnano to each be ready to lead their respective offenses and for at least one of these teams to record 40+ points. Count on the game total going over the 63.5-point total and for there to be plenty of offense from start to finish.
