Week 10. Time to watch men clad in helmets and armor from our basement dens, playing a vicious game that has no room for pretty boys named Ken. Or brainiacs from UPenn. Can I get an amen? I will always have a special place in my heart for Dat Nguyen. He played with such passion and, as a fellow Asian-American, he filled my heart with pride way back then. When I was just a little pup. Long before Cooper Kupp. You know what’s up. It’s time for me to interrupt this little voyage down memory lane and wish you all good luck this week. May all your players erupt and end with you swimming in a vault full of money like Scrooge McDuck.
Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City and Tennessee have a bye this week.
We’ve got 10 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, three games have a spread of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Buffalo on the road over Miami by 9.5 points. Seven games have a total of at least 45 points, with BUF/MIA the highest at 50.5 points. The lowest total is JAX/HOU and CLE/NYJ at 37.5 points. There are six home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Drake Maye, New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,400) – The Patriots have won six straight. Some of the credit goes to the defense, especially the run defense which is one of the best in the league, and a lot has to go to the play of Maye. He’s completing a league-high 74.1% of his passes, thrown 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He’s also rushed 59 times for 270 yards and two touchdowns, which makes us fantasy nerds giddy inside. Maye has put up double-digit FPTS in every game this season with all but three over 20 FPTS. Tampa Bay also has one of the best run defenses in the league and Baker Mayfield has been no slouch himself either, so the game will likely be played through the air, which should increase the snaps and potential fantasy goodies. This game has a healthy total of 48.5 with a tight spread, so it could very well be a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,000), Lamar Jackson ($6,800), Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Baker Mayfield ($6,200)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($4,600) – Brissett will be making his fourth straight start in lieu of Kyler Murray, and he’s played extremely well, finishing with over 20 FPTS in every contest. Brissett has completed 65.2% of his passes and thrown six touchdowns and one interception. Seattle has a great defense this season, especially against the run, and have intercepted nine passes, but Brissett is a grizzled veteran and has the lowest career interception percentage of all time! He won’t be fazed and the Seahawks offense has been humming with Sam Darnold at quarterback, so Brissett should continue slinging the rock around. In the three starts, he’s attempted 44, 36 and 31 passes. He’s also rushed 14 times for 49 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($6,000), Sam Darnold ($5,800), Jaxson Dart ($5,700), Mac Jones ($5,000), J.J. McCarthy ($4,900)
Running Back
Stud
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets ($6,500) – The Jets run defense has allowed the sixth-highest EPA per carry. And that was with star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. Well, Williams is now in Dallas and this Jets team has no motivation to win. Judkins should feast in this one. He’s received at least 20 carries in three games and put up over 20 FPTS in two contests.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), James Cook ($7,500), De’Von Achane ($7,400), Rico Dowdle ($6,300), Jordan Mason ($6,200) if Aaron Jones is out
Value
Ty Johnson, Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins ($4,000) – I’m not enamored with the value at running back this week, so Johnson it is. Ray Davis has been pushed way down the depth chart, so it’s been Johnson and Reggie Gilliam backing up James Cook, who is questionable for this one. If Cook is out, then I’d expect Johnson to be the main back. He received two targets and two red zone looks last week while playing 20% of the snaps. Buffalo should dispatch of Miami fairly easily, so even if Cook plays, Johnson could see good action. Miami is allowing 5.0 yards per carry and has given up 10 rushing touchdowns. The 42 receptions allowed to running backs is the eighth-most.
Other Options – Chuba Hubbard ($5,300) if Rico Dowdle is out
Wide Receiver
Stud
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers ($8,700) – Nacua injured his ribs last week, so keep an eye on the injury report. If he plays, though, Nacua should feast. The 49ers are dead-last in pressure rate and have allowed the ninth-highest EPA per dropback with 15 touchdowns. Nacua has garnered double-digit targets in four games, finished with at least 20 FPTS six times with a high of 39 FPTS and has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600) Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400), Justin Jefferson ($7,900), Davante Adams ($7,700), Emeka Egbuka ($7,000)
Value
DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000) – Kayshon Boutte suffered a hamstring injury last week and it was Douglas that led the team with six targets, catching four for 100 yards and a touchdown. Boutte is likely out for this one and the Patriots will probably tilt toward the air. That said, Douglas hasn’t played more than 30% of the snaps since Week 3 and the target share has been volatile. He’s cheap, though, and the environment could be a friendly one.
Other Options – Zay Flowers ($5,900), Stefon Diggs ($5,800), Tetairoa McMillan ($5,700), Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,300), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,300), Jauan Jennings ($4,600), Tez Johnson ($4,500), Darius Slayton ($4,300), Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,600)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks ($6,000) – McBride has put up double-digit FPTS in all but one game this season, with two of those over 20 FPTS. As mentioned in the Brissett section, the Cardinals will likely be tilting toward the air in this one and there should be plenty of passing volume. McBride leads the team with 75 targets and the Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most FPTS on average to the position.
Other Options – George Kittle ($4,500), Colston Loveland ($4,100)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots ($3,900) – With all the injuries at wide receiver for Tampa Bay, Otton has been an integral part of the pass offense. Over the last four games, he’s received five, nine, six and five targets, finishing with double-digit FPTS in three of those contests. Both defenses are excellent at defending the run, so both offenses will likely tilt toward the air. New England has allowed the 10th-most FPTS on average to the position.
Other Options – Theo Johnson ($3,800), Mark Andrews ($3,400), David Njoku ($3,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Texans DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,100) – Houston has the best pass defense in the league, posting the lowest EPA per dropback, allowing eight touchdowns, intercepting nine passes, and the 56.7% completion percentage is the lowest in the league. Trevor Lawrence will be without some weapons and he’s only completing 59.7% of his passes, has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 21 times. The Texans DST has put up at least five FPTS in every game this season with three over 10 FPTS.
Other Options – Bills DST ($3,700), Seahawks DST ($3,600), Panthers DST ($3,500), Lions DST ($3,400)
Value
Browns DST at New York Jets ($2,900) – Cleveland has the best run defense in the league, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry, three touchdowns and the lowest EPA per carry. The pass defense is 14th in EPA per dropback, but the Jets can’t pass and the Browns defensive line is ferocious.
Other Options –
