Nine weeks have been played in the 2025 NFL regular season, marking the halfway point of the recently-expanded schedule. With every team having played either eight or nine games, I figured it was a good opportunity to look back at the opening half of what has been one of the most dramatic seasons in NFL history.

The Super Bowl is the most important prize that any team can win this season, but we’re still a long way from the jockeying for playoff positioning and the do-or-die sprint through the single-elimination bracket that will define the home stretch. Because anything can happen in the postseason, there are plenty of fan bases who can look at their favorite teams and be convinced of Super Bowl contention.

The MVP race is different: by this point in the season, the top few names have already separated themselves for award consideration. Barring injuries, it’s more often that surprise teams will make deep playoff runs than surprise players make a long-shot charge at the regular season MVP.

Below, I’ll take a look at who those players are and break down their cases to this point in the NFL season.

Current NFL MVP Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Unsurprisingly, the current MVP favorite is last season’s winner, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+170). Besides Allen and Patrick Mahomes (+350), though, some of the other contenders weren’t widely expected to be in awards consideration at the beginning of the season.

In recent seasons, the award has almost always been given to a quarterback, and this season looks as if it will be no exception. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is on pace to finish with 26 touchdowns, which would tie for the fourth-most in NFL history, and he’s tied with his quarterback for the 12th-best odds to win MVP. The San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey is on pace for 2,309 scrimmage yards, the 11th-most ever, and he has just the 14th-best odds. The Seattle Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba could break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record and is tied with McCaffrey. The last time a running back won the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and no wide receiver has ever won. Taylor, Smith-Njigba, and McCaffrey are all among the favorites to win Offensive Player of the Year.

So, with respect to the historic seasons that the three aforementioned players, I won’t break down their MVP cases below, since none of them has realistic chance. Instead, I’ll just focus on the four favorites.

Who Will Win MVP

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+170)

The case for Allen is simple: he won AP MVP last season, and this season, he’s completed a greater percentage of his passes, thrown touchdowns at the same rate, averaged more yards per attempt, and posted a higher passer rating. He’s been almost as good on the ground as he was last season, and he’s on pace to score double-digit rushing touchdowns for the third straight season. The Bills have had plenty of team success, sitting second in the AFC West with a 6-2 record.

Once thought of as a gunslinger with a big but occasionally inaccurate arm, Allen has combined strength with precision this season. He ranks fifth in completion percentage after ranking below the league average in that stat during his MVP season, and he has the highest on-target percentage and the lowest bad throw percentage. In part, that’s because he’s been a more conservative passer than ever, posting his fewest intended air yards per passing attempt, but it’s hard to blame him for executing the game plan when Buffalo’s offense is scoring the league’s third-most points per game. Despite a stellar season from running back James Cook (+12000), he’s the clear driver of the Bills’ elite offense, which can’t be said for Indianapolis (Jones and Taylor) and the Detroit Lions (Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs).

However, his victory last season could work against him. Since 2000, only three players (2003-04 Peyton Manning, 2008-09 Manning, and 2020-21 Aaron Rodgers) have won consecutive AP MVP awards. Last season, the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson looked like a favorite for much of the season after throwing 41 touchdowns and four interceptions and posting career-best passing numbers across the board, rushing for 915 yards, and leading the Ravens to a 12-5 record. He out-paced Allen in almost all major statistical categories, but voters felt more compelled to award Allen with his first MVP than Jackson with his second straight and third overall. Similar factors are at play for Allen this season, and he’ll continue to be dinged until he wins a Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+350)

Somehow, for all of his success, Mahomes has only won two MVP awards, and none since 2022, though he also finished as the runner-up in 2020. He wouldn’t have deserved it last season, when he had just a 26:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt. However, he’s bounced back this season with a 64.6% completion percentage, 2,349 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s also had his most aggressive season as a runner, rushing for a career-high 6.1 yards per attempt and 31.7 yards per game.

As expected, he ranks near the top of the leaderboard in most statistical categories, sitting third in passing yards, third in touchdown passes, and fourth in quarterback rating through the first nine weeks of the season. For the first time in several seasons, Kansas City also has a redemption narrative after getting trounced by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl in February. The Chiefs have dealt with absences from each of their top two wide receivers, with Xavier Worthy missing most of three games with a dislocated shoulder and Rashee Rice being suspended for six games, but Mahomes has put together three solid games after Rice’s return, throwing for 835 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Barring some massive team improvement, though, I don’t see how Mahomes wins the award, even with the narrative finally in his favor. Kansas City is just 5-4 and is likely to be a Wild Card team for the first time since 2015. His stats are good, but they’re among the worst of his career and he trails Allen, Maye, Stafford, and Jackson, among others, in passer rating. Plus, the Chiefs have among the most difficult remaining schedules in football, as they still have to play two games against the division-leading Denver Broncos and their fearsome secondary, which ranks fifth by expected points added. He’s also lost head-to-head to Allen and played poorly in that game, which could stick in voters’ minds at the end of the season.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (+400)

Five seasons after New England’s Tom Brady-led dynasty ended, the Patriots lead the AFC East once again behind an MVP candidate. Maye was a solid-but-unspectacular rookie last season, taking over after five weeks for Jacoby Brissett finishing eighth in Rookie of the Year voting as New England finished with a 4-13 record. He demonstrated enough flashes in his rookie season that the Patriots opted to draft an offensive tackle fourth overall to protect him, but even the most optimistic New England fan wouldn’t have seen an MVP and championship-level leap coming.

That’s exactly what he’s made this season, though. He leads the league in completion percentage despite recording the second-most intended air yards per passing attempt, completing his passes a league-best 9.6 percentage points more frequently than expected, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. After being sloppy with the ball in 2024, he’s tossed just four picks in the first nine games, and he’s taken massive leaps in virtually every conceivable category. He’s also been effective as a runner, turning his 59 carries into 220 yards and two touchdowns. Maye ranks seventh in touchdown percentage, 13th in interception percentage, second in passer rating, and fifth in QBR. While he’s taken too many sacks, ranking second in sack percentage behind only Jackson, he hasn’t been at fault as frequently for those pressures as Baltimore’s signal-caller has.

There’s recent precedent for players winning in their second seasons. Mahomes won in 2018 after making just one start in 2017, and Jackson won in 2018 after taking over as the Ravens’ starter partway through the 2017 season. Both of those seasons were even more historic than Maye’s, though; in 2018, Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns, a number that Maye will fall far short of, and Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards with a higher touchdown percentage and lower interception percentage than Maye has this season. Both players also out-paced Maye in QBR. The Patriots have also had a very easy schedule, and though it remains easy for the rest of the season, ESPN’s Football Power Index suggests that New England is due for some regression.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+500)

The oldest player on this list, Stafford has only received an AP MVP vote once in his career, when he finished eighth in voting in 2023. He’s been a solidly above-average quarterback for most of his 17-year career, and he played tremendously in the Rams’ 2021 Super Bowl run, but he’s never quite played to an MVP level during the regular season: until now. He’s completed 67.2% of his passes for 2,137 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, and Los Angeles is 6-2, topping a fairly strong NFC West.

Like Allen, Stafford has been known as a turnover-prone gunslinger for most of his career, but he’s cleaned up his accuracy this season. His completion percentage is the fourth-highest of his career, and his touchdown percentage, interception percentage, success rate, and passer rating are all career bests. All of these figures rank near the top of the league leaderboard: he leads the league in yards per game, trails only Jackson in touchdown percentage, ranks third in interception percentage, and lags behind only Jones in success rate. He leads the league in intended air yards per passing attempt and still ranks a solid 12th in completion percentage over expectation.

A few factors might hinder his case, though. He has the best supporting player of any candidate: wide receiver Puka Nacua, who’s caught 61 passes for 711 yards in just seven games. He also doesn’t add anything with his legs in an era in which dual-threat quarterbacks rule the day. Plus, while the Rams have been excellent this season, their remaining schedule is more difficult than any other MVP candidate’s team. At 37 years old, he’d also be one of the oldest MVP’s ever, and besides Rich Gannon in 2002 and Y.A. Tittle in 1963, the other players to win the award in their age-37 season or later had won it before.

Best Bet

Drake Maye (+400)

Despite being just 23 years old, Maye has the strongest case. Jackson has probably been the league’s best player, but he won’t win the award while missing three games, especially if he leads the league in sack rate.

Of the other three quarterbacks, while Allen’s numbers have been among the best in his career, his claiming the trophy over Jackson last season underscores the difficulty of winning consecutive awards. Mahomes has had a merely average season by his standards. And, while Stafford has been arguably the league’s best passer this season, his inability to run the ball, stronger supporting cast, and age will make it difficult for him to finally get over the pinnacle.

Maye wasn’t expected to be this good, and neither were the Patriots, but with a friendly schedule, he can win the award simply by repeating his heroics in the first half of the season. If New England can climb back to the pinnacle of the AFC by beating Buffalo again and claiming the division, the award should be Maye’s.