The Denver Broncos are on a roll. They’ve won six straight games and now lead the AFC West by one game ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers and two ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs, who have claimed the division in each of the last nine seasons.
While the Broncos have won largely on the strength of their defense, the offense, led by second-year quarterback Bo Nix, has done just enough to get the job done. Denver has also been buoyed by several breakout players, including wide receiver Troy Franklin, who has become a bona fide WR2.
With a win in tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash against the Las Vegas Raiders, which begins at 8:15 p.m. ET at Mile High Stadium, the Broncos would improve to 8-2 headed into the season’s first matchup against the Chiefs in Week 11.
Denver is a 9.5-point favorite for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 42.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Franklin.
Best Troy Franklin Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Troy Franklin U44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
45 receiving yards is a pretty high bar that Franklin has only hit this number once in his last five weeks. Even with Marvin Mims out, the Broncos have lots of depth at the receiver position, from a true WR1 in Courtland Sutton to tight end Evan Engram to rookie Pat Bryant, who’s broken out recently. Denver also has a robust ground game led by a pair of solid running backs in J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey and a mobile quarterback in Nix, and it might choose to run the ball if it builds an early lead.
The only time Franklin has recorded 45 or more receiving yards in the last five weeks came against a pitiful Dallas Cowboys defense. While the Raiders’ secondary isn’t great — it’s allowed the 12th-most yards per game and ranks ninth-to-last by expected points added — it’s not nearly to the Cowboys’ level. Las Vegas still has at least one solid corner in Eric Stokes and a decent safety in Jeremy Chinn, and Kyu Blu Kelly has played better in the last few weeks. Since Franklin largely lines up in the slot, he should mostly be guarded by Chinn, who’s been effective enough at limiting yards after the catch throughout his six-year career.
Troy Franklin 1st Drive – Catch a Pass (+131)
In general, teams have been able to move the ball against the Raiders. They’ve allowed the third-best third-down conversion rate, the third-best fourth-down conversion rate, the fifth-most plays per drive, and the second-longest average drives by time. The more plays the Broncos are able to run on their first drive, the better. Las Vegas has also conceded a 66.0% completion percentage in the first quarter, a higher mark than in the second period.
Franklin has been less targeted in the first quarter than the second or fourth, but he’s been effective on those targets, so perhaps Nix will target him more early moving forward, especially since Mims — who has as many first-quarter receptions as Franklin this season — is out. He’s only recorded a catch on the first drive twice, but he’s been targeted at least once on two other occasions, so Nix trusts him plenty. Chinn has allowed an 82.1% completion percentage in coverage, which should provide an opportunity for him to make a catch on the first drive tonight.
