The Raiders and Broncos were a good matchup….back in 2000! Since then, the Raiders have had a winning record in just four seasons, two of those coming in 2001 and 2002. A black hole it has been for Raiders Nation.
A new coach (Pete Carroll), running back (Ashton Jeanty), and quarterback (Geno Smith) were rays of optimism for some entering the season, but Las Vegas has won only two games this season and scored fewer than 10 points on three separate occasions. Smith has thrown 11 interceptions, tied for the league lead, while their rushing attack is the worst in the NFL. Vegas’ EPA per carry is dead-last with three rushing touchdowns — all from Jeanty — and 3.8 yards per carry.
On defense, the unit has allowed only 3.9 yards per carry, but the 12 touchdowns are tied for the second-most. Their pass defense has allowed the eighth-highest EPA per dropback with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. The 17.8% pressure rate is the sixth-lowest in the NFL.
The Broncos had 10 winning seasons, culminating in the Super Bowl win in 2015. The team has endured a Peyton Manning hangover in the years since, but three seasons ago, the ship was righted after Sean Payton was named head coach. Peyton to Payton — the universe had jokes, but the turnaround has been no laughing matter. Denver has run off six-straight wins and is now 7-2 on the season.
Their rushing attack has been solid, averaging 4.9 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns. The EPA per carry is 10th-best. The passing attack hasn’t been great, as Bo Nix hasn’t taken that next step, but he’s performed well in the clutch. Their EPA per dropback is only 17th-best, while the 61.2% completion percentage is 28th. Still, his 17 touchdowns are tied for the third-most in the NFL. Nix has also been sacked only nine times, tied for the fewest among starting quarterbacks.
Denver is all about the defense. The unit is posting the fourth-best EPA per carry and has allowed 3.7 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns. The pass defense is fourth-best in EPA per dropback with eight touchdowns allowed and four interceptions. The 28.2% pressure rate is fourth-best, while the 40 sacks are the most by a wide margin. Detroit is second with 28 sacks.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Denver favored by 9.5 points at home with the total set at 42.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LV @ DEN)
Captain’s Picks
RJ Harvey ($8,400 CP): After being mired in the 20% to 28% range for snaps during weeks five to eight, Harvey garnered 32% of the snaps last week. To those saying, “That’s not a great number, Son,” I know, I know, but that’s why his price is so cheap. Harvey isn’t going to be a bellcow, but he’s developed into quite the explosive weapon for Sean Payton. Harvey has a receiving touchdown in each of the last three games and, two games ago, he rushed seven times for 46 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over Dallas. Another blowout could be on the menu for this one.
UTIL Plays
Brock Bowers ($14,700): Bowers went off for 46.3 FPTS last week, as he hauled in 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns. I am not expecting anything close to that kind of production in this one. In fact, I don’t think Bowers has a particularly good game, but we have to pick one Raiders player, and Bowers seems to be the best of the worst.
Bo Nix ($15,900): Denver is implied to score 25.75 points, the sixth-highest number for the entire week, so the Broncos will more than likely be putting up plenty of points. I’m probably going to have a Broncos onslaught with both running backs, so I’m taking Nix cover the passing angle. With Harvey in as captain, I’m forecasting a touchdown reception, so the double-dip is in effect here.
Troy Franklin ($11,400): Franklin hasn’t exceeded 89 yards receiving yet this season and finished with double-digit FPTS only twice. That said, he’s garnered eight or more targets over the last three games and scored three touchdowns. Marvin Mims is out, while Pat Bryant hasn’t seen more than four targets in any game this season.
Fades
Ashton Jeanty ($15,300): Jeanty is an amazing running back. Unfortunately, the Raiders’ offensive line has been offensive, failing to open many holes for him. The Broncos’ rush defense is also one of the best in the league, and the game script likely won’t do any favors for the fantasy prospects of Jeanty.
THE OUTCOME
Broncos onslaught.
Final Score: Broncos 34, Raiders 13
