The Trail Blazers are hosting the Thunder on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 229.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder preview, prediction
The defending champion Thunder have picked up right where they left off last season. Oklahoma City is 8-0 and it leads the league in net rating this season. The Thunder once again lead the NBA in defensive rating and their offense has also been great, ranking fourth in rating. Oklahoma City is playing its second game in two nights after blowing out the Clippers by 19 points Tuesday, and with this being the second leg of a back-to-back, Chet Holmgren will rest tonight.
The big man just returned from a three-game absence due to a back injury last night, so the Thunder being cautious with Holmgren makes a ton of sense in this situation. Also, Alex Caruso (rest), Lu Dort (trap) and last, but not least, Jalen Williams (wrist) will all be out.
One would think Oklahoma City would be in trouble without two of its top three players, but the Thunder are a perfect 11-0 with Holmgren and Williams inactive the last two seasons. This deep, well-coached team is accustomed to playing without key players and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should put up a huge stat line tonight. In the eight starts he has made with Holmgren and Williams inactive the last two seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading Oklahoma City with 32 points and 7.1 assists per game with a 34.8% usage rate. Plus, role players Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams will all be asked to take on bigger roles with the Thunder shorthanded.
While there has been plenty of controversy surrounding the Trail Blazers with head coach Chauncey Billups on leave from the team following his arrest due to an illegal poker scheme, Portland has been playing solid basketball this season. The club is 4-3 and ranks ninth in net rating. Deni Avdija has been the Trail Blazers’ top option and he has seized the opportunity, averaging a career-high 24.1 PPG on 49% shooting.
Shaedon Sharpe is also averaging 18.1 PPG, Jerami Grant has flourished as the team’s sixth man with 20.1 PPG and veteran Jrue Holiday has made a major impact, averaging 16.7 points and a team-high 8.3 assists per game. The elite defensive guard has certainly helped Portland on that side of the ball, with the Trail Blazers ranking ninth in defensive rating, but Holiday and his teammates will have their work cut out for them tonight, going against the top guard in the NBA in Gilgeous-Alexander.
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder pick, best bet
Even when understaffed, the Thunder are a very difficult team to beat and while the Trail Blazers have the advantage in rest, as they haven’t played since Monday while Oklahoma City just played last night, the Thunder should still notch a win this evening. On the back end of a back-to-back set, Oklahoma City is 12-5 the last two seasons.
Covering this 4.5-point spread, on the other hand, is a different story and Portland is a strong bet to cover this spread. The Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS this season and over the last two seasons, they are an awesome 23-13 ATS when competing as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Thunder are just 8-9 ATS when playing with no rest the last two seasons.
