The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets weren’t naturally expected to be among the NBA’s marquee franchises. Miami joined the league as an expansion team in 1988-89, both are medium-sized TV markets, and Denver doesn’t naturally have weather-related advantages like those that draw players to South Florida. In recent seasons, both of these teams have built enviable cultures and have been among the most successful franchises, as the Heat have won three titles and the Nuggets have won one since the turn of the century.
They’ll face each other tonight for the first time this season at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets don’t have any players listed as questionable or worse, and Miami’s only injured players — Tyler Herro and Kasparas Jakucionis — haven’t suited up yet at all.
Denver is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-395 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 241.5. The Heat have +310 odds on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer a prediction.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets preview, prediction
Miami has slowed down after a hot start, losing to the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Lakers before narrowly beating the LA Clippers on the back end of the Southern California back-to-back. But after a down season in 2024-25, getting 22.4 points and 9.1 rebounds per game from Bam Adebayo — now equipped with a reliable three-point jumper — has to be a positive. Norman Powell, acquired over the summer for virtually nothing, has been stellar, averaging 23.3 points per game, canning 52.4% of his triples, and playing the best defense of his career. The Heat have pieces.
However, the Nuggets have been even better. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokić hasn’t even been quite as dominant as usual, but he’s still averaging 22.7 points, 13.2 rebounds, 11.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game, and Aaron Gordon is enjoying the best season of his career. New arrival Cameron Johnson hasn’t even shot the ball well, and neither has Christian Braun, but their struggles haven’t stopped Denver from winning four of its last five games.
Heat at Nuggets pick, best bet
While the last remaining undefeated team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, easily leads the league in net rating, both Miami and the Nuggets are close. Denver has had the second-best offense and the fourth-best defense so far for the third-best net rating, and the Heat have been 12th on offense, third on defense, and fifth overall. Each team ranks in the league’s top three in both points and assists, and each is among five teams who have made at least half of their field goal attempts so far this season. On the surface, there’s not much to separate these two teams.
Unsurprisingly, the Nuggets have been better in the paint, averaging the sixth-most points in the paint per game after leading the league in that stat in 2024-25. Jokić’s dip in overall scoring can be attributed mostly to passivity; his 77.2% accuracy from two-point range is the best figure of his career, but he’s attempted nearly five fewer field goal attempts per game than he did in 2024-25. Miami has allowed the 11th-fewest points in the paint because of its volume, but it’s still conceded the fifth-highest percentage in the restricted area, so Jokić should be able to get his. Adebayo didn’t offer Jokić that much resistance last season, allowing him to record 27 points and 14 assists on 11-for-13 shooting in the 90.3 partial possessions he guarded him.
As always, a key for Denver will be whether or not Jokić’s supporting cast hits its shots, especially against a team that has held opponents to the eighth-worst three-point percentage. So far, Gordon has, connecting on a career-high 48.4% of his three-point attempts, including a 10-triple performance in an Opening Night overtime defeat to the Golden State Warriors. All in all, though, the Nuggets have had room to improve from deep, as they’ve converted wide-open threes at just the fourth-lowest rate. Johnson has gotten particularly unlucky, draining only 21.1% of his wide-open threes after making 42.2% of such shots in 2024-25.
Both teams have benefited from good fortune defensively: Miami has allowed the ninth-lowest percentage on wide-open triples this season despite allowing the ninth-most attempts, and Denver has allowed the lowest percentage on the fifth-most attempts. Nuggets opponents have taken a pretty healthy shot diet, attempting the 13th-most restricted-area shots and the eighth-most corner threes, while the Heat’s have tried the most corner triples and among the fewest shots from the inefficient midrange. Denver has also grabbed the league’s highest percentage of available defensive rebounds, which makes sense given its personnel, but its 67.2% conversion on chances would be the highest since Second Spectrum began tracking data in 2013-14, and Miami has had the most defensive rebounding chances. Both teams are due for regression in all of those aspects.
In that respect, the offenses are more real than the defenses, and even though Colorado’s high altitude tends to result in lower shooting percentages, particularly for opponents, I’m expecting a fairly high-scoring game tonight. The Nuggets should walk away with a high-scoring victory.
