The Grizzlies are hosting the Rockets on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 232.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets preview, prediction
After losing their first two games, the new-look Rockets with Kevin Durant have been excellent, winning four in a row. Houston ranks second in net rating this season, trailing only the defending champion Thunder. Even at 37-years-old, Durant has been extremely efficient, leading the Rockets with 26.2 PPG while shooting 51% from the field, helping Houston be the top rated offense in the league this season.
Alperen Sengun has also been excellent after making his first All-Star team last season. The big man is averaging a career-high 22.8 PPG, while shooting a career-best 47% from beyond the arc. Additionally, Sengun is leading Houston with 8.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. Lastly, Amen Thompson is averaging 17.0 points and 5.5 assists per game as the team’s starting point guard with Fred VanVleet (knee) out—both of which are career-highs for Thompson—and Jabari Smith Jr. has taken a step forward as a scorer in his fourth season, averaging a career-high 15.0 PPG.
Smith Jr. (ankle) is questionable tonight, which would be his second missed game in a row if he is ruled out. With Smith Jr. out Monday vs. the Mavericks, the Rockets defeated Dallas 110-102 with Tari Eason starting in place of Smith Jr. Eason stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block, and finished second for Houston in plus/minus in the victory. Eason is an elite defender and the Rockets shouldn’t suffer in anyway if he is forced to start again for Smith Jr. on Wednesday.
While the Rockets look like true contenders after making big changes this summer, the Grizzlies have had a rough start to their season after trading away Desmond Bane this offseason. Memphis is 3-5 and as a bottom-eight team in both offensive and defensive rating, the club ranks 25th in net rating. The Grizzlies have been moving the ball well, ranking fourth in assist rate (68.5%), but with a great shooter like Bane out of the picture, Memphis ranks 24th in effective field goal percentage (51.9%).
Ja Morant is healthy again after only playing in 50 games last season and while most expected him to have a huge season with Bane gone, that hasn’t been the case. Morant is averaging just 20.4 PPG after averaging at least 23 PPG for four years in a row and he is shooting a career-worst 39.3% from the field. Morant and the Grizzlies’ staff have already had major problems, as the guard was just suspended for one-game due to conduct detrimental to the team following Memphis’ loss to the Lakers last Friday. Morant rejoined the team Monday vs. the Pistons and posted a double-double, but the Grizzlies lost their third straight and following the defeat, the guard told the media “no” when asked “do you feel like you got the same joy right now?”.
Amid all the Morant drama, Jaren Jackson Jr. also has taken a step backwards, averaging 18.0 PPG, after averaging over 20 PPG for back-to-back seasons. While it’s early in the season, first time HC Tuomas Iisalo’s job certainly doesn’t feel secure right now and the bad vibes in Memphis are likely to continue tonight with the surging Rockets in town.
Grizzlies vs. Rockets pick, best bet
The Rockets and Grizzlies are trending in opposite directions right now, and Houston is a lock to beat this discombobulated Memphis team, regardless of this being a home game for the Grizzlies.
The Rockets are 4-2 ATS with a 12.7-point margin of victory this season – which ranks second in the NBA behind the Thunder – and Houston is a great bet to cover this 7.5-point spread.
