Five players have separated themselves in most observers’ eyes as the five clear best players in the league. In no particular order, these are: Luka Dončić, Victor Wembanyama, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokić.
It’s always a treat when two of those players face off on national television, and that’ll be the case tonight, when Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs travel to face Dončić’s Los Angeles Lakers for a 10 p.m. ET clash at Crypto.com Arena.
The Lakers are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 227.5. The Spurs are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s game, including — of course — both Dončić and Wembanyama.
Luka Dončić Most Assists (-129)
With two of San Antonio’s best guards, rookie Dylan Harper and veteran De’Aaron Fox, both sidelined with injuries, and Stephon Castle more of a slashing-oriented combo guard, Dončić doesn’t really have competition from any of the Spurs. The most likely player, if not him, to lead the game in assists, is Austin Reaves, and while Reaves has actually out-assisted him twice this season, that’s largely a matter of luck, given that Dončić ranks fourth in potential assists per game and Reaves ranks 20th. Ironically, while both Los Angeles guards pass most frequently to each other, Dončić has made 53.1% of his shots following a Reaves pass, and Reaves has only made 33.3% of his shots following a Dončić pass. Assuming some normalization to shooting luck, Dončić’s greater overall playmaking burden should make him more likely to record the most assists tonight.
Plus, while San Antonio has had the league’s second-best defense overall, that’s mostly because Wembanyama has manned the middle, gobbling up defensive boards and swatting shots. The Spurs haven’t been so great at preventing assists, allowing the 15th-most per game this season. 49% of shots from Dončić’s passes have resulted in three-point attempts this season, compared to only 29% of Reaves’, so Reaves’ potential assists are more likely to be affected by Wembanyama’s presence. San Antonio has allowed the fifth-highest opponent three-point percentage this season, though that’s partially a matter of shooting luck.
Victor Wembanyama O5.5 Steals + Blocks (-102)
Most of the emphasis on Wembanyama’s defense focuses on his absurd, sky-scraping blocks, and he may well get to six steals + blocks based on blocks alone, given that he’s had six or more blocks twice in his six games this season. However, he’s also had at least one steal in each of his games, making him one of just three players — along with Anthony Davis and Scottie Barnes — to record at least one steal and one block per game in each of his last two seasons and the start of 2025-26. His length allows him to influence passing lanes in a way no other player can, and he often comes up with lost balls in part because opposing ball-handlers panic and drop it right into his hands.
He might have to come up with multiple steals against the Lakers, who have been blocked at the sixth-lowest rate this season. Los Angeles has some length, and Dončić is difficult to block for a slow-footed point guard because of his height and his reliance on step-backs and fade-aways. Two steals shouldn’t be a huge challenge for him, though, especially against a team that turns it over at the sixth-highest rate. Dončić drives at the league’s third-highest rate, and among the 23 players who average at least 12 drives per game, he’s merely average in turnover rate. Both he and Reaves rank in the league’s top 12 in turnovers per game.
Stephon Castle 20+ Points (-111)
With Fox injured, Castle has continued the second-half leap that propelled him to the Rookie of the Year award last season. After Fox’s last game on March 12 last season, Castle averaged 19.1 points per game for the rest of the season, topping the 20-point plateau in exactly half of his games. So far in 2025-26, he’s averaging 20.0 points per game and has scored 20 or more in four of the six contests, including 26 in Sunday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns, in which Harper left early and Wembanyama struggled. The increased ball-handling duty has come with some snags — he leads the league in turnovers — but his sophomore leap is real.
The Lakers have done well on defense given their personnel, but their 115.2 defensive rating is good for only the 19th-best mark in the league. So far, though, Los Angeles has been pretty exploitable in the paint, allowing the 12th-best field goal percentage in the restricted area. That could be a problem against Castle, who arguably plays off of Wembanyama’s gravity more effectively than any other Spur and finishes at the 22nd-highest rate among the 66 players to attempt four or more restricted area tries per game. Plus, the Lakers could sell out to stop Wembanyama and dare any other San Antonio player to beat them, as Phoenix did on Sunday and as Los Angeles did against Nikola Jokić in a 123-100 win in February.
