An epic World Series will come to a fitting conclusion with a thrilling Game 7 on Saturday night in Toronto.
After 15 homers through the first five games of the series, neither team homered in Game 6. Which players have a chance to change that on Saturday? Let’s take a look at two of my top home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook who I think have good Game 7 home run potential. After taking a look at the matchups, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Saturday’s showdown are for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Freddie Freeman.
Just a brief reminder before we swing for the fences: all home run props are long-shot bets by their very nature, even more in the playoffs than during the regular season. In fact, with such a small pool of players and elite pitchers on the mound,, they are even more difficult to hit in the postseason. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can help point us in the right direction. While home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re so volatile. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these home run props in Saturday’s Game 7 matchup.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+352)
Guerrero has been the Blue Jays’ best hitter this postseason, and he homered earlier in this series off Shohei Ohtani, who will start what is expected to be a heavy bullpen game for both teams.
Guerrero is hitting .412 for the playoffs with eight homers in 17 games. He has two blasts in the six games in this series and has gone 9-for-25 (.360) with six runs scored, three RBIs and seven walks.
The Dodgers will surely be careful with Vladdy in Game 7, but he looks ready to hammer any mistake out of the yard.
After only hitting 23 homers in the regular season, his power surge in the postseason has continued his legend in Toronto. If he crushes another homer on Saturday, he’ll have a good shot at winning World Series MVP as the heart of the team’s offense.
I’ve been riding Guerrero in lots of my picks throughout the postseason, and I’m coming back looking for one more big swing to cap off his historic October.
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+531)
The loudest homer in the series so far is probably Game 3’s walkoff blast in the 18th inning off the bat of Freddie Freeman.
Could “Mr. World Series” have more drama in store this Saturday? He actually hasn’t had a great World Series overall, going just 5-for-23 (.217) with a double and that homer along with five walks, two runs scored and two RBIs. He has such a history of coming up large, though, that it’s easy to see him hitting a homer in Game 7. Last year in the World Series, he hit four homers in five games against the Yankees, and in his 79 career postseason games, the lefty has 16 homers.
Freeman will be facing a very familiar foe in Max Scherzer at the start of the game on Saturday. He has only gone 11-for-56 (.196) in his previous chances against Mad Max, but three of those 11 hits have been home runs.
Scherzer gave up 19 homers in his 17 regular-season starts this year, and lefties had 13 of those 19 blasts while posting a .360 wOBA.
Since Scherzer struggles on that side of the splits and Freeman has so much postseason pedigree, his home run props seem like a great value at over 5/1 for Game 7.
