The race to the American Conference title game gets more interesting by the week with an undefeated Navy program meeting a one-loss North Texas in Week 10. Both of these teams are within the top three spots in the conference standings, so today’s matchup holds real implications for how things shake out here. Will the Midshipmen’s run continue, or can the Mean Green pull off an upset behind an elite offense?
Let’s dive into the details with a North Texas vs. Navy prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Navy vs. North Texas prediction, preview
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green are in the midst of a magical campaign in Denton, Texas with a 7-1 record and dominant wins over nearly every team they’ve played. While UNT dropped out of the AP Poll with a loss to South Florida several weeks ago, this team still belongs among the top 40 or so in the sport, if not higher. The offense averages 45.4 points and 501.0 yards per game, top-five marks in the nation behind excellent play from redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who ranks second of any FBS quarterback with 2,468 passing yards. He’s also completed 68.2% of his passes and tossed 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions, most of which came in the same game. Wyatt Young leads the team in receiving with 35 catches for 586 yards and seven scores, while Cameron Dorner sits second with 32 catches for 466 and four scores. The Mean Green also have a strong run game with Caleb Hawkins rushing for 547 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 6.2 YPC, and Makenzie McGill II has 389 with five scores as well.
The defense is lacking compared to the offense, though. North Texas falls 80th and 86th with 396.0 yards and 28.6 points allowed per game, and the defensive scheme may cause some issues in this one. The Mean Green deploy a run-funnel approach, allowing 213.9 rushing yards while shutting down the pass with just 182.1 yards allowed through the air. They’re 24th in sack percentage at 7.88% and eighth in takeaways per game with 2.1.
Navy Midshipmen
Meanwhile, the Midshipmen aren’t ranked but probably could be as one of just a couple of unbeaten teams remaining. They’ve won their last 10 games dating back to the tail end of last season, and despite a run-heavy approach as always, this program sits top-16 in points (34.8) and yards (463.8) per game. Navy actually ranks second in yards per play as well with 7.5 and first in yards per pass at 11.7. Of course, the Midshipmen are fifth in rush attempts and first in rushing yards per game with 293.8 while averaging an efficient 6.2 YPC, so this may prove quite interesting against UNT’s defense. Quarterback Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,063 yards, seven touchdowns and three picks while leading the team in rushing with 814 yards and 12 scores as well. Behind him is halfback Alex Tecza (80-464-6) and a pair of wideouts with 293 and 285 rushing yards as well. In the passing game, Eli Heidenrich paces the Midshipmen with 25 catches, 507 yards and four scores.
Navy doesn’t exactly have a stout defense with 25.7 points and 400.7 yards allowed on average, both outside the top-60 teams. They’re giving up 134.2 on the ground compared to 266.5 via the air, so North Texas can take advantage of that soft pass defense. The Midshipmen have a sack percentage of 5.61%, 76th, but they force 1.7 takeaways per game as well.
Navy vs. North Texas pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists North Texas as -6.5 home favorites with -250 odds to win on the Moneyline. Navy holds +205 odds to win outright on the road with the game total set at 68.5 combined points.
It’s not too often you see a matchup where the two sides are so well-equipped to key on each other’s weaknesses. The Mean Green can’t stop the run and host the nation’s top rushing attack in all its Wing-T and triple-option glory. The Midshipmen are vulnerable to the pass and get to face one of the country’s top young quarterbacks and a high-powered passing attack. Can you ask for much more? Not really!
Usually, this would set up as a contest where the time-of-possession battle takes center stage, one which Navy would almost certainly win. With a run-heavy approach that mixes in the occasional explosive pass, milking the clock comes easy. However, North Texas has the offense to score quickly and rather often, and the home team has shown an ability to blow opponents out more frequently. The Mean Green have already been battle tested after beating a similar Army team 45-38 back in September, so they’ve shown they can hang with the service academy offense once before. As long as Mestemaker can make plays with his arm and stay away from turning the ball over (most of his interceptions came in one game), UNT can cover today.
