Big 12 play rolls on in Week 10 of the 2025 college football season with a showdown between No. 13 Texas Tech (7-1) and the Kansas State Wildcats (4-4). The Red Raiders suffered their first loss of the campaign a couple of weeks ago but are still hanging around in the conference standings, as well as the College Football Playoff picture. However, they’ve historically struggled when playing at .
Read up on the matchup with a Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas State Wildcats prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State prediction, preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders
After an undefeated start to the campaign, Texas Tech finally lost its first game two weeks ago to Arizona State despite a near-comeback in the final minutes. While the team’s stats have ticked downward a bit after playing some tougher opponents in the Big 12, the Red Raiders still look like a top-10 squad on both sides of the ball. An elite offense averaged 40.3 points and 471.6 yards while converting third downs at a 49.54% clip. Behren Morton (68.4% CMP%, 1,501 YDS, 13 TDS, 3 INT) returns at quarterback after missing a couple of weeks due to injury and now leads one of the nation’s best passing attacks. He’ll throw to a trio of talented wideouts headlined by Caleb Douglas (33-512-2), Coy Eakin (34-455-4) and Reggie Virgil (32-363-5). The Red Raiders average 293.3 passing yards a game and generally keep the quarterback upright with a top-30 sack percentage, but Cameron Dickey (113-678-9) paces a rushing attack putting up 178.3 yards on average.
Defensively, Texas Tech’s numbers are arguably more impressive. This team ranks top-11 in opponent points (13.1) and yards (276.6) per game while allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 30.36%. The Red Raiders have the nation’s best run defense with just 2.2 YPC and 70.3 yards per game allowed, while the secondary holds opponents to 206.3 yards and top-20 rankings in completion percentage and yards per pass. The pass rush is also formidable with an 8.06% sack percentage, 22nd in the country, and overall the unit forces 2.0 takeaways per contest.
Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats aren’t looking as good in the win column as their opponents are, especially with a 3-2 record in conference play. However, Kansas State does have a very solid team and has the edge in past meetings against Texas Tech. K-State averages 30.0 points and 353.0 yards per game while converting third downs at a 37.36% rate. Avery Johnson (62.9% CMP%, 1,792 yards, 15 TDs, 2 INT) provides great quarterback play while showing a strong connection with Jayce Brown (36-577-4) and Jaron Tibbs (32-403-3) as the passing attack averages 209.9 yards per contest. The ground game posts 143.1 yards per game with Joe Jackson (95-382-1) leading the way and Johnson (66-255-5) also contributing with his legs. The Wildcats don’t have the caliber of offense their opponent does, but they’re capable of hanging in there against just about anyone.
The Kansas State defense also comes in as an average-to-good unit with 24.4 points and 371.0 yards allowed per contest, as well as a 37.14 third-down conversion rate. The Wildcats give up 155.1 yards on the ground and 215.9 yards through the air, but the completion percentage of 53.81% actually ranks sixth in the sport. A sack percentage of 6.30% sits 50th, but they’re no stranger to big plays with 2.3 takeaways per outing, sixth-best in the nation.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite on the road on Saturday with -298 odds on the Moneyline. Kansas State enters with +240 odds to win outright with the game total set at 51.5 combined points.
One side comes in looking elite on both ends. The other appears good, but not great. At first glance, that sets up a matchup in which the Red Raiders should dominate and walk out with yet another win since after all, the defense can carry them even when the offense falters. However, something about Manhattan, Kansas seems to get to this Texas Tech program. The visitors are 9-15 all-time against the Wildcats, 2-8 on the road, and have lost eight consecutive games in this series at just 1-9 across the last 10 meetings.
If we know that info, both teams certainly do as well. If the Red Raiders turn the ball over more than once, things can certainly get scary in a hurry. After Morton missed the last few weeks due to injury, he’s only one hit away from heading to the shower early as well. This one may end up much closer than people expect, so Kansas State should put up a fight and defend their home turf as usual by at least keeping the game competitive. Don’t expect a blowout by any means, even with this TTU team playing significantly better football than those to visit Manhattan in the past.
