Entering the season, Baltimore was considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. And why not? They won 12 games last season while boasting one of the best quarterbacks, running backs, offensive lines, defenses, and coaching staffs in the league.
Any worry from the team’s 41-40 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 was swiftly wiped away after their 41-17 thrashing of the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. Then the lugnuts began to loosen, and the wheels eventually fell off in Week 5, as Cooper Rush started two games for an injured Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lost four straight, limping into the bye week with a 1-5 record.
Jackson was unavailable once again last week, but Tyler Huntley guided Baltimore to the 30-16 win over the Chicago Bears. The star quarterback is finally off the injury report and will be back for this one. Could this be the moment when a Phoenix rises from the ashes?
There’s a lot of season left to be played, but Jackson couldn’t have come back for a better matchup. The Miami Dolphins have allowed 5.0 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns, posting the 10th-highest EPA per carry. The pass defense? Even worse. The Dolphins have allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback with 11 touchdowns to only one interception. The 73.7% completion percentage allowed is the highest in the league.
Jackson could be forced to be aggressive in this one because the Ravens’ defense may be just as bad. Baltimore has allowed 14 passing touchdowns while intercepting only two passes. The 15.5% pressure rate is the fourth-lowest mark, and the nine sacks are tied for the second-fewest. On the ground, Baltimore has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. Their EPA per carry is the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set at 51.5 points and a back-and-forth affair is very much in the cards. Both teams can rack up points, especially against two of the worst defenses in the league.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BAL @ MIA)
Captain’s Picks
De’Von Achane ($17,100 CP): Achane is one of the best running backs in the game, yet he hasn’t had a run longer than 49 yards or a reception longer than 29 yards this season. At some point, he’s going to break free. That could be in this one; it could not. Regardless, due to his all-around game, Achane has been one of the most consistent running backs in the league. He’s put up double-digit FPTS in every contest with three over 20 and a high of 34 FPTS. That’s more impressive when you factor in how inept the Dolphins offense has looked this season. Achane leads the skill position players with 22 red zone opportunities. He had eight of those last week. Baltimore has seen the third-highest red zone touches by running backs this season.
UTIL Plays
Derrick Henry ($16,500): Henry rushed 18 times for 169 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener, and we all sang to the heavens that our king is back. Then he proceeded to put up less than 10 FPTS in three of four games. Over the last two games, though, Baltimore has committed to Henry, giving him 24 and 21 carries, resulting in 17 and 19.1 FPTS. I’m thinking Baltimore won’t want to stress Lamar Jackson since he’s been out for multiple weeks, so Henry should get fed again. And the Dolphins’ rush defense should be no match, having surrendered 5.0 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns so far.
Isaiah Likely ($3,000): Since returning to action, Likely has pretty much played the same amount of snaps as Mark Andrews, but the latter has received more targets and red zone looks. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played most of those games, though. Likely is cheap for a reason, but he has upside due to his athleticism. Miami has allowed the 11th-most FPTS on average to the tight end position.
Tua Tagovailoa ($15,000): Normally, I eschew pocket passers and side with the dual-threat quarterbacks — in this case, Lamar Jackson — but I don’t think Jackson gets pushed in this one while Henry shoulders most of the load. In addition, Tagovailoa usually struggles with pressure, but that’s something Baltimore has had difficulty generating. The range of outcomes is wide with Tagovailoa, but he does have three games with over 20 FPTS, and there’s a good chance that Achane catches a touchdown for the double-dip.
Fades
Zay Flowers ($14,100): Flowers leads the Ravens with 55 targets on the season, but the aDOT is only 9.4. He’s exceeded 20 FPTS only once this season and finished below 10 FPTS twice. He did go for 31.3 FPTS in the opener, so he can access a ceiling, but Henry should dominate the Ravens’ offense in this one.
THE OUTCOME
I think plenty of points will be scored in this one, but mostly on the ground. I may be going crazy, but Miami was impressive in Atlanta last week, and I think they play spirited ball at home on Thursday night.
Final Score: Dolphins 37, Ravens 34
