It was a fairly mild Week 8 NFL slate with blowouts and bye weeks limiting the excitement to an extent. But the week will conclude with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Commanders to hopefully provide an exclamation point.
This game has also lost a bit of the luster with Jayden Daniels ruled out due to his hamstring injury. Marcus Mariota will make his third start under center for the Commanders with Washington holding a 3-4 record thus far. It will be a tough matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs team that has moved to 4-3 and looks to be finding their stride again.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Chiefs enter as 10.5-point favorites and hold -675 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders hold +490 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 47.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Commanders.
Commanders at Chiefs Best Prop Bets
Brashard Smith Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Running back and wide receiver production has been a problem for the Chiefs in the early part of the season, but they are back to trending in the proper direction. Xavier Worthy returning from injury and Rashee Rice coming back from suspension has been the driving force of this. But seventh-round pick Brashard Smith has also earned plenty of praise and seen his role grow in recent weeks. There were some encouraging signs starting in training camp and he looks to be finding his place in this Kansas City offense.
Through the opening seven games, Smith has 22 rush attempts for 67 yards and 14 receptions for 122 yards. He has played under 10% of offensive snaps in three games this year, but he is coming off a season-high 34.6% of the offensive snaps last week. Smith spent his first three seasons of his college career at Miami as a wide receiver before transferring to SMU where he played running back and rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 touchdowns. Andy Reid is as equipped as any coach to maximize a player with this type of skill set and the production is beginning to grow.
Smith has tallied three or more receptions in each of the past four games and is coming off a season-high five receptions last game. The rookie has posted receiving yard totals of 27, 32, 21 and 42 yards across these matchups. Washington ranks 27th in total yards allowed and 26th in passing yards conceded on the season. Expect the Chiefs to continue giving Smith chances with the ball in his hands and for him to record over 17.5 yards through the air for the fifth straight game.
Marcus Mariota Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-113)
This will mark the third start of the season for Marcus Mariota. Through his opening two starts, he is not exactly making his case for why he should get another crack and being a starter at any point. The Oregon product threw for 207 yards in his first start against the Raiders and was held to 156 passing yards against the Falcons. Mariota attempted 10 passes in relief of Daniels last week against a vulnerable Cowboys defense and was limited to just 63 passing yards.
He will now take on a Chiefs defense that is third in points allowed and fourth in yards conceded. Looking just at their pass defense, they are third in passing yards allowed and second in passing touchdowns allowed. They are also sixth in EPA per passing play. Kansas City held Geno Smith to just 67 passing yards last week and Jared Goff had just 203 passing yards in the dynamic Lions offense. Jalen Hurts was also held to just 101 passing yards, Russell Wilson had 160 yards against the Chiefs, and Lamar Jackson had just 147 passing yards, although he left a bit early due to injury.
The game script certainly suggests Mariota will have plenty of chances to air the ball out, but this is a tough matchup and he has not looked the part of a quarterback that can capitalize on this. He has also not taken more than 27 pass attempts in a game yet this season. Expect the struggles to continue in this game and for Mariota to fall short of the 199.5-yard passing total.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-105)
National Tight End Day may have been yesterday, but look for Travis Kelce to celebrate tonight. The 10-time Pro Bowler is the team’s leading receiver through the opening seven games with 31 receptions for 375 yards and two touchdowns. He has been targeted at least three times in every game this year, with his touchdowns coming against the Chargers and Jaguars.
Washington ranks 20th in passing touchdowns conceded and has had some struggles guarding tight ends. Through the opening seven weeks, opposing tight ends are averaging 4.6 receptions, 52.4 receiving yards, and it has allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends. This includes Jake Ferguson pulling in two touchdowns in the previous matchup.
While he will not be confused for the prime version of himself, Kelce still plays a major role in the Chiefs’ offense. He has been targeted six times in the red zone so far this season, which trails only Hollywood Brown (8) for the most on the team. Kelce’s 17.6% target share in the red zone and 12.0% of targets inside the 10-yard line are encouraging enough for me. Expect Kansas City to take quite a few red-zone trips in this game and for Kelce to record his third touchdown of the season.
