Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
According to Statcast’s Park Factors, there was no easier place to hit a home run during the 2025 MLB regular season than Dodger Stadium, which just so happens to be hosting Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night. Will we see some fireworks? I think so. Let’s break down my top two long ball picks on DraftKings Sportsbook: Freddie Freeman and Daulton Varsho.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+364)
Max Scherzer will start Game 3 for the Blue Jays, 11 days after an impressive performance on the road in the ALCS. Prior to that 5.2 inning outing, Scherzer had been terrible in his last handful of appearances, registering a 10.20 ERA in the month of September. It was a good reminder not to doubt generational talents — even if said talent is from a different generation than almost everyone’s he’s competing against. It was also a good reminder that things change in the postseason. Scherzer threw his fastest pitch of 2025 versus the Mariners (96.5), and saw notable velocity jumps across his whole arsenal. Still, despite all that, the 41-year-old did surrender a home run to Josh Naylor. That was the 20th long ball Scherzer’s given up in just over 90 innings of work, and was the continuation of his specific woes against LHBs. During the regular season, Scherzer conceded 2.45 home runs per nine within the split. I could see the veteran RHP struggling with the top third of the Dodgers’ lineup on Monday evening, and while Shohei Ohtani (+151) has laughably short odds to go deep, it feels like there’s some value with Freddie Freeman. Scherzer and Freeman have faced off more than 60 times in their careers, and the latter has three home runs off the future first ballot Hall of Fame pitcher. Needless to say, there’s no mysteries in this matchup.
Daulton Varsho 1+ Home Run (+599)
If you’re looking to back someone with amazing career numbers off Tyler Glasnow, Daulton Varsho is not your guy. Unsurprisingly, that distinction would fall at the feet of both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+343) and George Springer (+459), who each sport an OPS above 1.100 in double-digit at-bats against Los Angeles’ Game 3 starter. However, that doesn’t change the fact that I think Varsho’s odds are slightly off on Monday. The Platinum Glove outfielder sported a .359 ISO against RHPs during the regular season, mashing 18 home runs in only 198 at-bats within the split. Among players with at least 200 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, that ISO ranked third in all of baseball, trailing just Nick Kurtz and the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani. Pretty good company. Certainly not company that would ever have 6/1 odds to go yard on a given night. With Alex Vesia away from the Dodgers and Anthony Banda getting blown up in Game 1, I’m doubtful there’s a lefty that Dave Roberts currently trusts in his bullpen. That should equate to Varsho taking all of his PAs in opposite-hand matchups this evening.
