Prior to the start of the season, the Baltimore Ravens were favorites to win the AFC North while the Pittsburgh Steelers were third. After seven weeks, Baltimore has won only one game and sits in the cellar of the AFC North while Pittsburgh is the division leader at 4-2. Up is down. Left is right.
Green Bay had the second-best odds to win the NFC North, but took care of the favorite Detroit Lions in impressive fashion in Week 1. Green Bay hasn’t been that impressive since, having lost to Cleveland and notching a cowardly tie in Week 4. I will give them a high five for consistency, though, as the Packers have scored exactly 27 points in four of six games.
This iteration of the Steelers is led by Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack. It’s a late Ben Roethlisberger-esque dink-and-dunk attack as Rodgers is at 6.0 average yards per attempt, but it’s been effective with 14 touchdowns to five interceptions, a 69% completion percentage and only nine sacks taken. The rushing attack is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry with three touchdowns.
Green Bay has been tough against the run, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns. The EPA per carry is fifth-best. The pass defense is 16th in EPA per dropback, allowing 10 touchdowns and a 67.6% completion percentage. The unit has picked off only two passes while racking up 18 sacks. Green Bay is ninth in pressure rate.
On offense, Green Bay is posting the eighth-best EPA per carry despite averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. Eight rushing touchdowns help. Jordan Love and the passing attack is where the magic happens, as the EPA per dropback is third-best. Volume is the issue, though, as the 200 dropbacks are the third-fewest and Green Bay is 29th in pass rate at 51.24%.
Remember the Steel Curtain? This Pittsburgh defense is not it. The unit is allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranks 17th in EPA per carry. The pass defense has allowed the 11th-highest EPA per dropback. Pittsburgh is sixth in pressure rate and fifth in sacks but 12th in yards allowed.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (GB @ PIT)
TE Darnell Washington/Pat Freiermuth/Jonnu Smith – Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,800/$4,000/$4,200)
It’s a three-headed monster at tight end for Pittsburgh. Last week, all three were in the 60% to 70% snap share area while all received at least five targets and two or more red-zone looks. Green Bay has allowed the most receptions to tight ends, the third-most touchdowns and the second-most FPTS on average to the position.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)
Gainwell performed well while Jaylen Warren was out, but has seen only 34% and 39% of the snaps with Warren back. Last week, Warren out-targeted Gainwell, 5-2, and received both red zone opportunities. Value is thin on this slate, so Gainwell will provide a few morsels of FPTS but likely not much else. Football is a dangerous sport, so it’s always within the range of outcomes that Warren gets hurt. Gainwell could also take a screen to the house or get a goal-line carry while Warren gets a breather. I’m not counting on those things happening, but not dismissing them either.
RB Emmanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers ($3,400)
The thesis for Gainwell is applicable for Wilson, who is the backup to Josh Jacobs. The snap rate has fluctated from 18% to 34% over the last few weeks, but Green Bay is one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and Wilson has garnered one target in the last two contests and saw a red-zone opportunity last week. It’s not much, but Jacobs could get hurt, need a breather or Wilson could break one. Not counting on it, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
