Kicking off as part of the Week 9 college football slate, the TCU Horned Frogs will travel to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. The matchup between these two Big 12 opponents will be kicking off at 6:00 p.m. ET.
These programs have faced off 13 times in their history with 12 of these occurring since 2012. West Virginia has produced the victory in eight of these games including five of the past six.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, TCU enters as 16.5-point road favorites and holds -800 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. West Virginia holds +550 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 55.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 9 matchup.
TCU vs. West Virginia prediction, preview
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU enters with a 5-2 record on the season and has peaked at 24th in AP Poll this season. Their pair of losses have come against Arizona State and Kansas Sate. The Horned Frogs have taken down North Carolina, Abilene Christian, SMU, Colorado, and Baylor. They are 1-2 when playing on the road this year, but 4-2-1 against the spread on the season.
Josh Hoover headlines the quarterback production and has been impressive this season. The third-year starter has completed 65.4% of his pass attempts for 2,124 yards, an FBS-best 21 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions while reaching the end zone twice with his legs. Eric McAlister leads the team with 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while leading the Big 12 with 21.5 yards per reception. Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Maniac IV have each also added 300+ yards through the air and a combined five scores. Kevorian Barnes leads the rushing attack with 391 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Trent Battle has a team-high four rushing scores and 234 yards on the ground of his own.
The Horned Frogs are averaging 36.3 points per game, which ranks 26th among FBS teams. They are generating 437.3 yards of total offense per game with 309.3 of these coming through the air along with 3.0 passing touchdowns per game. TCU has not been held below 24 points in a game and have tallied 35+ points in five of their games. Defensively, TCU is allowing an average of 26.3 points per game and 382.3 yards of total offense. They have given up 14+ points in every game and as many as 41 already this season. The Horned Frogs have collectively tallied 18 total sacks and forced 14 turnovers on the year.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia is off to a 2-5 start to the season with their pair of victories being over Robert Morris and Pittsburgh in overtime. They have suffered losses to Ohio, Kansas, Utah, BYU, and UCF with the matchup against Ohio being the only game that ended by a margin fewer than 14 points. The Mountaineers are 2-1 at home this season and 3-4 against the spread.
There has been a rotating cast of quarterbacks to this point with none of available options being up to the desired standard. Nicco Marchiol started the first four games of the season before suffering a foot injury. His time at West Virginia is expected to be over as he pursues a medical redshirt and enters the transfer portal. Khalil Wilkins, Scotty Fox Jr, and Jaylen Henderson have each also spent time under center. Each player has their individual strengths and weaknesses. But collectively the West Virginia quarterback position has completed just 57.2% of their pass attempts for just 1,111 passing yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. Simply put, the quarterback play has been a mess.
Wilkins is also the team’s leading rusher with 243 yards on the ground along with two scores. Henderson is right behind him, also coming from the quarterback position, with 146 yards on the ground. Tye Edwards is the top producing running back with 133 yards and three touchdowns while Jahiem White and Diore Hubbard have over 100 yards on the ground and three touchdowns each as well. Cam Vaughn is the team’s leading receiver with 334 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
The Mountaineers are averaging 21.0 points per game, which ranks 113th out of 136 qualifying FBS teams. They are producing 354.1 average yards of offense and just 158.7 passing yards per game. West Virginia have scored 31+ point in both their victories but held to 14 or fewer in four of the five losses. Defensively, opponents are scoring 30.9 points per game, which ranks 115th, and producing 416.4 total yards of offense. They have allowed 38+ points in each of their past four games. West Virginia has 12 sacks and forced 12 turnovers on the season.
TCU vs. West Virginia pick, best bet
TCU has not looked quite up to their desired standard this season, with some flaws in their defense and rushing game. But West Virginia has significant issues on both sides of the ball and this game could get ugly early. The Mountaineers have a dreadful defense that the Horned Frogs will be prepared to put up some massive figures against. Despite a strong rushing game, West Virginia struggles to finish drives and has been held to 14 or fewer in four of their past six games.
TCU has won nine of their past 11 games and won the first half of six of their last eight games. They have not tallied more than 192 yards through the air since the victory over Robert Morris, nor have they had more than 83 passing yards since Nicco Marchiol went down with injury. Despite their commitment to the run game, West Virginia ranks 132nd in time of possession. They also are producing just a 29.4% conversion rate on third down which ranks 131st.
This feels like a get-right spot that TCU will be ready to capitalize on. The 16.5-point spread is notable, but the Horned Frogs have won three of their five games by this margin. They have put up 24+ points game in every matchup this season and this may be enough to cover the spread. Expect West Virginia’s offense to continue struggling and for TCU to put points on the board at a high rate. It would not be a surprise at all if this game is over by halftime and for this matchup to get ugly. Things are going from bad to worse for West Virginia and this is not a matchup where this should be expected to change.
