The bye week armageddon is upon us. Hopefully, we don’t have to play anyone that’s sus or I’m gonna be yabbering in the wife’s ear making a fuss with words that can be defined as cuss. Plus, tons of sounds that are superfluous. Now that my mini-rant is over, let’s take a deep breath and discuss how to make lineups that aren’t treasonous, filled with players that are concussed. If I’m not able to navigate this minefield, then I better don the backpack and jump on the yellow school bus, to ascertain the knowledge so you may once again trust.
Arizona, Detroit, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle have a bye this week.
We’ve got 10 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, one game has a spread of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Indianapolis at home over Tennessee by 14.5 points. Five games have a total of at least 45 points, with DAL/DEN the highest at 50.5 points. The lowest total is the CLE/NE at 40.5 points. There are two home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants ($6,600) – I’m not too enamored with the higher-priced quarterbacks this week, so I settled on Hurts because the floor/ceiling combo is relatively high. The passing game has been better after the two stinkers to open the season. Hurts has had four multi-touchdown games since then, with two three-touchdown games. But the allure with Hurts is the rushing equity. He’s scored five rushing touchdowns and is always in play to score on a Tush Push. Hurts has failed to score at least 19 FPTS only once this season and he has a high of 30 FPTS. New York stymied him a bit two weeks ago, but Hurts still finished with 21.6 FPTS.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,500), Lamar Jackson ($6,800) if he plays, Dak Prescott ($6,500), Baker Mayfield ($6,400),
Value
Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets ($5,400) – Flacco has thrown 45 and 47 passes since joining the Bengals. There is some concern that the volume may not be there in this one because the Jets are inept on offense. That said, the Bengals have difficulty running the ball, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, while the Jets have been decent against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns. The pass defense? Thirteen touchdowns, zero interceptions, only 10 sacks and the second-highest EPA per dropback. Flacco should feast and throw multiple touchdowns in this one.
Other Options – Bo Nix ($6,000), Caleb Williams ($5,600) if Lamar Jackson plays, Jaxson Dart ($5,500), C.J. Stroud ($5,100), Spencer Rattler ($4,700)
Running Back
Stud
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans ($9,500) – All the boxes are checked for Taylor in this one. What could go wrong? If you’ve walked down these streets more than a few times, then you know very well what could happen. Taylor is very, very expensive, especially for a back that isn’t prolific in the passing game. That said, he has caught at least three passes in all but one game this season. The Colts offense is humming on all cylinders right now, this game is in Indianapolis, the Colts are favored by two touchdowns and the matchup is one of the best for running backs. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-highest EPA per carry and the 12 rushing touchdowns allowed are the most in the NFL.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), Bijan Robinson ($8,800), De’Von Achane ($7,300), James Cook ($6,700), Cam Skattebo ($6,600), Rachaad White ($6,400)
Value
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears ($6,000) – Remember when Henry rushed 18 times for 169 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Bills? Yeah, me neither. Since then, he’s produced at least 10 FPTS only twice. At least his second-highest score of the season came last week, rushing 24 times for 122 yards. There’s a chance that Lamar Jackson returns for this one, which increases the possibility of a ceiling game. Regardless, he’s going to get fed whoever is under center. And the matchup is a good one as the Bears have allowed 5.3 yards per carry.
Other Options – J.K. Dobbins ($5,800), Woody Marks ($5,100), Kyle Monangai ($4,900)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets ($8,100) – Sauce Gardner is a good cornerback and will likely shadow Chase, but good offense beats good defense and Chase is one of the best receivers in the game. And if he’s one-on-one all game? Flacco’s emotions will likely go wacco and he should feed Chase over and over and over again. Chase garnered a laughable 23 targets last week, catching 16 for 161 yards and a touchdown. In the other game with Flacco under center, Chase received 12 targets and caught 10 for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($7,800), George Pickens ($7,100), Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) if he plays, Drake London ($6,400), Rome Odunze ($6,300), Courtland Sutton ($6,200), A.J. Brown ($6,100) if he plays, Jaylin Noel ($3,500)
Value
Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys ($4,200) – I’m not sure that this game is as exciting as the 50.5 total implies, but I do think Denver will have some success on offense. Dallas has allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback with 16 passing touchdowns (second-most) and only three interceptions. Franklin is second on the team with 46 targets and he garnered 10 last week.
Other Options – DeVonta Smith ($5,900), Chris Olave ($5,800), Tee Higgins ($5,600), Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,200), Rashid Shaheed ($4,700), Alec Pierce ($4,600), Tez Johnson ($4,300), Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,900), Andrei Iosivas ($3,600)
Tight End
Stud
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants ($4,200) – Goedert is coming off his worst game of the season, 4.8 FPTS. He had scored double-digit FPTS in every other game, with a high of 29 FPTS against the Giants. Goedert also has a red Q next to his name, as he was dealing with a calf issue, but he practiced fully on Thursday. That could lower the ownership. While I’m not expecting another 20-FPTS performance, I think he scores similar FPTS to Tyler Warren, who is $1,300 more expensive.
Other Options – Tyler Warren ($5,500), Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,400)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints ($3,200) – With the wide receiver depth chart decimated by injuries in Tampa Bay, Otton has stepped in to help fill the void. Over the last three games, he’s received five, six and nine targets, hauling in four, five and seven for 81, 51 and 65 yards. That’s been good for 12.1, 10.1 and 13.5 FPTS. New Orleans has allowed the 14th-most FPTS to tight ends on average while the pass defense has posted the sixth-highest EPA per dropback.
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($3,900), Noah Fant ($3,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Colts DST vs. Tennessee Titans ($3,800) – At this point, you’re basically selecting any defense that is playing the Titans. Granted, the salary skews the equation but it’s almost guaranteed points. Only two DSTs have failed to scored double-digit FPTS against the Titans, and they put up eight and six FPTS. The Colts DST put up 15 FPTS in Week 3 against the Titans. With how the Colts offense is playing, the Titans will likely have to drop back and pass more than they’d like, which should provide more chances for fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Falcons DST ($3,500), Buccaneers DST ($3,400)
Value
Texans DST vs. San Francisco 49ers ($3,000) – I’m not thrilled about any of the value defenses, so Texans it is. A ringing endorsement! Houston has scored at least five FPTS in every contest, with three double-digit performances. Houston is fifth with 10 takeaways and this game is at home against a banged-up 49ers team.
Other Options – Bears DST ($2,600), Saints DST ($2,300)
