Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
The Raptors started their season with a convincing win by 20 points as road underdogs in Atlanta. Toronto looked very balanced, with seven players scoring double-digits in the win. The Raptors return home to face the Bucks, who also won their season opener, but against a Wizards team that projects to be among the worst in the NBA. Beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee’s roster took a step back this season. Let’s see what the Bucks are capable of on the road against a talented and hungry Raptors squad.
NBA Pick: Raptors Moneyline (-110)
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans
The Spurs looked spectacular in their season debut, particularly Victor Wembanyama. Sharp money came in on Dallas, which was bet up as a home favorite in the game. San Antonio won by 33 points, and got a historic performance from Wemby, who finished with 40 points, 15 boards, three blocks and zero turnovers. Stephon Castle also looked great, and the Spurs proved to have a roster deep with talent, even while D’Aaron Fox is sidelined. Meanwhile, the Pelicans got off to a good start against the Grizzlies, but showed their true colors. This isn’t a competitive team, and the bench provides little spark. The Spurs might be for real this season, and are certainly priced too short against a team like the Pelicans.
I’m also going to buy high on Wemby here. I understand the danger in doing so, his props are potentially inflated after his monster season opener. But I believe when we look back on these numbers later in the season, we’ll actually realize now was the time to bet Wemby props. I’m buying into the hype that this is the season that Wemby takes a big leap into the MVP conversation, and we should see a lot of games like his 40-point, 15-rebound effort. I’m going to back him on his Points + Rebounds prop against a soft Pelicans front line — not that it matters after what he just did to Anthony Davis.
NBA Pick: Spurs Moneyline (-125)
NBA Pick: Victor Wembanyama OVER 40.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
It took the Timberwolves a little while to get going in their win over the Trail Blazers, but they got the road win behind a big game from Anthony Edwards. Minnesota continues to develop as a potential contender, and returns the majority of the roster that went to the Western Conference Finals last season. On that WCF run, the Wolves bounced the Lakers with ease in five games, and that was with LeBron James healthy. While I do feel the Warriors are a legitimate team, the Lakers did not look good at all in their season opener on Tuesday. I certainly don’t like the roster turnover with Deandre Ayton for Los Angeles, who should get eaten up by Minnesota’s bigs. I like the T-Wolves to pick up where they left off and take down the Lakers again.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (-112)
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
The Celtics unleashed Derrick White in three preseason games, showing what many of us expected to see — a massive role with Jayson Tatum sidelined. White averaged 21.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists in just 28 minutes in those three games. I bet the over on his Points + Rebounds + Assists on Wednesday against the 76ers, which cashed, despite poor numbers from White. He shot just 7-for-20 from the field, finishing with 25 points, three rebounds and four assists. White missed nine three pointers in that game, but now gets to face a Knicks team that lets opponents go bombs away from downtown. I’m expecting White to be able to score plenty in this game, while also producing more like he did in the preseason with his rebounds and assists. I was pretty surprised to see the number on his combo prop drop, so we’ll play the over here.
NBA Pick: Derrick White OVER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks
Middleton showed flashes in his brief stint with the Wizards last year when he was given minutes. That said, Washington clearly wasn’t competitive down the stretch last season, so Middleton barely played as the season progressed. It’s a new season, and for now, the Wizards have a fresh slate to work with. Middleton looked much more like his old self in the season opener, although we do have to take caution, since it came in a revenge game against the Bucks. That said, I think the Wizards are going to lean on their veterans early in the season and see what they can do. Middleton went for 23 points in 29 minutes on Wednesday, attempting 14 shots from the field. I think around 30 minutes feels reasonable for Middleton, and while his shooting might not be quite as hot, this is a low number for him to reach on his point prop as one of the centerpieces on offense.
NBA Pick: Khris Middleton OVER 14.5 Points (+100)
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
I bet Chris Paul to get us five assists in the season opener and he landed on four. The frustrating part is that he barely played, but not by design. His four dimes came in less than 15 minutes on the floor, but the Clippers showed zero pulse in Utah, getting mopped from start to finish by the team with the lowest win total in the NBA. Sets up a good motivational spot from the Clippers, who should look much sharper on Friday night. Look for Paul to get about 20 minutes in this game, and go for five of more assists against one of his former teams.
NBA Pick: Chris Paul OVER 4.5 Assists (+110)
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