The Virginia Cavaliers are off to a 6-1 start to the season and climbed to 16th in the AP Poll. They will look to add to this as they take on the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have dropped to 2-4 on the year. These two teams will face off during the noon window on the Saturday slate.
These programs have faced off 129 times in their history. North Carolina has come out on top in 66 of these matchups, while Virginia has won 59 times, and four ties have occurred. UNC is 10-5 across the past 15 matchups, dating back to 2010.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, Virginia enters as 10.5-point road favorites and holds -395 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. North Carolina holds +310 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 50.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 9 matchup.
Virginia vs. North Carolina prediction, preview
Virginia Cavaliers
The Virginia Cavaliers are hot out of the gates this college football season. They enter this matchup with a 6-1 record, with their lone loss coming 35-31 at the hands of NC State. Virginia has produced victories over Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, Stanford, Florida State in double overtime, Louisville in overtime, and Washington State. They are 1-1 when playing on the road, 3-0 in ACC conference play, and 5-2 against the spread on the year.
Chandler Morris has impressed at the quarterback spot for the Cavaliers, posting a 68.7% completion percentage and throwing for 1,607 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions while adding 191 rushing yards and four scores with his legs. Trell Harris is the team’s leading receiver with 405 yards through the air and three touchdowns this season. Jahmal Edrine and Cameron Ross have each pulled in 329+ yards through the air and combined for three touchdowns, while Dakota Twitty, Kameron Courtney, and J’Mari Taylor have over 100 receiving yards as well. Taylor also leads the team in rushing with 512 yards and eight rushing scores. Harrison Waylee adds 253 rushing yards of his own and five scores, while Xavier Brown has run for 241 yards and scored two total touchdowns.
Virginia is averaging 40.0 points per game, which ranks ninth in the country. They are producing 462.3 total yards of offense, with 258.4 coming through the air and 203.9 on the ground. The Cavaliers have put up 45+ points three times already this season and have scored 22+ in every game this season. Defensively, Virginia is allowing 23.2 points per game, which ranks 60th in the country, and 352.7 total yards of offense. They have generated 17 sacks and forced 11 turnovers already this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels
It has not been the start to his college football career that Bill Belichick envisioned. North Carolina has picked up a pair of victories over Charlotte and Richmond but suffered a loss to TCU in the opening game and enters on a three-game losing streak at the hands of UCF, Clemson, and California. They are 1-2 at home this season, 0-2 in conference play, and 3-3 against the spread.
Gio Lopez still fills the primary quarterback role, although Max Johnson has also been given chances. Lopez has completed 63.9% of his pass attempts for 597 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 80 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Jordan Shipp leads the team in receiving with 253 yards through the air and two touchdowns. Kobe Paysour, Javarious Green, and Chris Culliver have tallied 100+ yards through the air on the season as well. Demon June leads the Tar Heels with 276 rushing yards and one score. Benjamin Hall has 136 rushing yards of his own and is tied for a team-high two rushing scores.
North Carolina is averaging just 18.7 points per game, which ranks 124th out of the 136 FBS teams, and is producing an average of just 267.7 yards of total offense. This comes from 162.5 passing yards and 105.2 rushing yards per game. They have been held to 18 points or fewer in each of their four losses. Defensively, the Tar Heels are allowing 25.0 points per game and 360.0 total yards of offense. They have given up 48 points to TCU, 34 to UCF, and 38 points to Clemson on the season. The Tar Heels have tallied eight total sacks and forced seven turnovers on the season.
Virginia vs. North Carolina pick, best bet
The Bill Belichick experience in college football has caught plenty of eyes, but there is not much reason to believe the outlook will turn around. North Carolina’s offense has looked lifeless for most of the season and struggled to get adequate quarterback play this year. The only time the Tar Heels have cracked 20 points in a game this season came against Richmond, who compete in the FCS.
This will be a problem against this high-flying Virginia offense that has put up points at one of the greatest rates in college football. The Cavaliers are red-hot, winning five consecutive games to enter this matchup. They are producing 258.4 passing yards per game and will face a North Carolina defense that ranks 98th in the country in passing yards allowed at 240.8 per game.
Expect Virginia to push the scoring total to a level that North Carolina has no chance of matching. The Tar Heels are not built to exploit the weakness that the Cavaliers have shown in the secondary. Count on Virginia putting up around their average of 40 points per game in this matchup and for North Carolina to struggle to reach half of this. Expect this to result in a Virginia victory and for them to cover the 10.5-point spread on DraftKings Sportsbook.
