The Atlanta Falcons will take on the San Francisco 49ers in the Week 7 Sunday Night Football matchup. Michael Penix Jr. and company will be looking to add to their 3-2 record, and these are the types of battles they need to win if they are to take their desired next step as an organization.
There have been some expected ups and downs for Penix Jr. in his second NFL season and first as the full-time starter. But Atlanta is still hoping that last year’s eighth overall pick can be the franchise quarterback of the future. There has been more good than bad thus far, and he will look to build off this against San Francisco.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the 49ers enter as 1.5-point favorites and hold -118 odds on the moneyline. The Falcons hold -102 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at O/U 48.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Michael Penix Jr. prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 7 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Best Michael Penix Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Michael Penix Jr. Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
While there have been some ups and downs in the production, Atlanta has not been shy to let Michael Penix Jr. sling the football. He is averaging 31.4 pass attempts per game on the season, but this is a bit weighed down from the 21 attempts he had against the Vikings. Penix Jr. has thrown for over 31.5 pass attempts in three of the five games thisp year and in two of his three starts last year.
San Francisco’s defense has been weaker against the pass this season, and the Falcons will be aware of this. Through their opening six games, the 49ers rank 15th in points and yards allowed, as well as ranking 18th in passing yards allowed, 19th in net yards per pass attempt, and 17th in passing touchdowns conceded. San Francisco is allowing 32.1 pass attempts per game this season. The defensive unit also took a huge hit last week, with Fred Warner suffering a season-ending injury to join Nick Bosa already on the sideline.
Bijan Robinson will surely still get his work, but the Falcons are at their best when Penix Jr. is moving the ball around the field. He has attempted as many as 42 pass attempts in a game this season, and he has cleared this total in two of the past three weeks. Expect the Falcons to allow Penix Jr. to put on a show in primetime and air the ball out at least 32 times.
Michael Penix Jr. Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-112)
The touchdown production is still a work in progress, but Penix Jr. has done a nice job picking up yardage. He is averaging 233.6 passing yards per game and has produced passing totals of 298, 135, 172, 313, and 250. He also averaged 245.7 passing yards across his three starts last year.
Looking deeper into the advanced stats, San Francisco ranks 24th in dropback EPA and 26th in opponents’ passer rating. They rank second-to-last in pressure rate and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to produce passing totals of 256 to Baker Mayfield last week, 389 passing yards to Matthew Stafford the week before, and even allowed 207 yards through the air to Spencer Rattler this season.
Stylistically, there are some similarities to how Penix Jr. goes through this processing to Stafford and Mayfield. Expect him to have plenty of time in the pocket and be successful in picking apart this San Francisco defense. Count on him throwing for over 223.5 passing yards for the fourth time this season and the sixth time across his first nine starts. Expect these passing yard lines to begin creeping higher as the weeks progress, and capitalize by locking in over 223.5 passing yards for tonight’s primetime matchup.
