Matthew Stafford leads the league with 1,684 passing yards. Joe Flacco has attempted the most passes (252), Jared Goff has the highest completion percentage at 75.9% and thrown the most touchdowns (14), tied with Aaron Rodgers. Geno Smith has thrown the most interceptions (10) and Cam Ward has taken the most sacks (25). Stafford has completed the most passes over 20 yards (28), while Sam Darnold leads the league with four completed passes over 40 yards (six). Finally, Stafford has the longest completion at 88 yards.
Here are my favorite QB/WR stacks for Week 7.
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5. Caleb Williams ($5,800) & Rome Odunze ($6,600), Bears vs. Saints
Williams hasn’t been great in three of five games this season, scoring fewer than 20 FPTS in those contests. In Week 3 ,though, he went for 298 yards and four touchdowns, so the range of outcomes is wide. That game was against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has allowed the most passing touchdowns and highest EPA per dropback. And the game script wasn’t a back-and-forth affair as the Bears easily won, 31-15. A similar setup could be in play for Week 7 as the Saints have allowed 14 passing touchdowns and the fourth-highest EPA per dropback.
Odunze was quiet in Week 6, garnering only five targets and finishing with 5.2 FPTS. However, he had a touchdown called back in that game. He leads the Bears with 40 targets and put up at least 15 FPTS in the prior four games with a high of 34.8 FPTS. I’m expecting him to get back to those ways in this one.
4. Daniel Jones ($5,900) & Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,100), Colts at Chargers
This game has the second-highest total on the slate, so points will likely be scored. Indianapolis is second in EPA per dropback. The Colts are also first in EPA per carry, so the balanced attack has given defenses fits. Jones has feasted on play action, and with Jonathan Taylor playing like a beast, it’s likely that there will be plenty of seams to exploit. After throwing one touchdown in each of the first four games of the season, Jones has produced two touchdown in the two most recent contests. He also has some rushing equity with four touchdowns on the season.
The Chargers’ pass defense has been good, posting the 10th-lowest EPA per dropback and racking up six interceptions with 16 sacks, but this Colts offense is humming right now and I’m not going to fade until new information is presented.
Pittman isn’t a blazer with a 4.52 40-yard dash. With an 8.7 aDOT, he’s more of a possession receiver. He’s finished with fewer than 50 yards receiving in four of six games and has yet to exceed 100 yards. He does have four touchdowns though on six red-zone looks. He should see an uptick in targets with Josh Downs ruled out.
3. Justin Herbert ($6,400) & Ladd McConkey ($6,000), Chargers vs. Colts
The Colts’ pass defense has racked up 16 sacks, seven interceptions, the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback and 35% pressure rate. With Los Angeles still dealing with offensive line injuries, that doesn’t bode well. That said, Jacoby Brissett just carved up this defense for 320 yards and two touchdowns, in Indianapolis.
The Colts play zone defense 70.2% of the time. Justin Herbert is completing 71.4% of his 133 passes against zone defense for 934 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Herbert will likely have to be aggressive in this one because the Colts’ offense could have success.
Quentin Johnston could return for this one, but he’s coming off a hamstring injury. He may not be 100% and the risk of re-injury is high. In addition, McConkey has been mind-melding the last few weeks with Herbert, and that chemistry could continue being a thing. McConkey just finished with seven receptions on nine targets for 100 yards and a touchdown, good for 26 FPTS. He’s now scored a touchdown in two straight.
2. Dak Prescott ($6,500) & CeeDee Lamb ($7,500), Cowboys vs. Commanders
The creme de la creme of the Week 7 main slate. This game has the highest total at 54.5 FPTS. The ownership will likely be high as well, so something to factor into the equation.
Dallas is seventh in EPA per dropback while Washington is 11th. But Dallas has allowed the highest EPA per dropback on defense and the most touchdowns (15). Washington is 12th in EPA per dropback, but they have not faced a passing attack like the Cowboys, who are getting CeeDee Lamb back as well. Dak Prescott has thrown 13 touchdowns, been sacked only seven times and is completing 71.4% of his passes.
In the two games that Lamb played, he garnered 13 and 11 targets, hauling in nine and seven for over 100 yards in each. That translated to 21 and 23.2 FPTS. I think he slots right into the alpha role with George Pickens, who played great in his absence, reverting back to the Robin role.
1. Jayden Daniels ($6,900) & Chris Moore ($3,000), Commanders at Cowboys
Having no Terry McLaurin stinks, but Daniels has dealt with that the last two weeks. He was still able to put up 23.6 FPTS last week, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing 10 times for 52 yards. He’s healthy, facing the worst pass defense in the league and is in play to put up a ceiling game.
Chris Moore is 6-foot-1, 206 pounds and runs a 4.53 40-yard dash. He has an aDOT of 13.8 on the season, although the sample size is small at 12 targets. Last week, he played 68% of the snaps, second-most amongst the wide receivers, and caught three of five targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. He’s available at a $3,000 salary and Deebo Samuel is questionable as well.
