We’ve got a series again in the ALCS.
After taking both contests in Toronto, the Mariners appeared to be well on their way to the World Series, as the ALCS shifted back to Seattle for Game 3, Game 4 and Game 5. However, the Blue Jays jumped all over George Kirby on Wednesday night, winning 13-4 and reminding everyone why they led the American League in victories during the regular season.
Let’s now focus our attention on tonight’s Game 4 at T-Mobile Park and break down some prop bets available on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prop Bets for ALCS Game 4
Max Scherzer Under 10.5 Outs Recorded (-104)
Look, for as much as any baseball fan would love to see a 41-year-old Max Scherzer shove in what could possibly be his final postseason start, the numbers don’t back up the narrative. Scherzer struggled to an immense degree down the stretch of the regular season, surrendering 17 earned runs in his 15.0 innings of work in September. That’s why the soon-to-be Hall of Fame pitcher wasn’t included on the Blue Jays ALDS roster. It’s also why many were surprised to see him on the ALCS roster. The home run ball has been Scherzer’s weakness in 2025, as the veteran RHP was one of only two men to concede more than 2.00 opponent home runs per nine among pitchers with at least 80 innings thrown. That’s bad news in this particular matchup, as the Mariners ranked third in long balls (102) and sixth in ISO (.187) following the All-Star break. John Schneider has been quick to pull his starters during the playoffs. In fact, Shane Bieber became the first Toronto pitcher to complete six postseason innings in his Game 3 performance. I’d have to assume Scherzer’s leash will be short as soon as Seattle’s lineup comes up the second time through.
Cal Raleigh 2+ Total Bases (+105)
I mentioned Scherzer’s tendency to serve up meatballs, and that’s been especially true to left-handed opponents. Scherzer faced 200 LHBs during the regular season and they combined to hit 2.45 home runs per nine with a .545 slugging percentage. Of the 48 hits Scherzer gave up to left-handed batters, 28 were for extra-bases. If that profile sounds familiar — it should. Cal Raleigh isn’t just your typical switch-hitter, he’s an extra-base hits machine. To wit, the All-Star backstop finished the regular season with almost as many home runs (60) as singles (63). That’s why it would be misguided to back Raleigh’s 1+ hits prop at -186 when you could simply take him for 2+ total bases. It’s not like he’s not going to hit something hard off Scherzer if given the opportunity. Raleigh managed a 99th percentile barrel rate in 2025 (19.5%). Scherzer conceded a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.4%).
Addison Barger 2+ Total Bases (+180)
Barger’s numbers slowed down significantly in the final couple months of the regular season, yet a massive solo home run in Game 3 might be enough to lift the third baseman out of his recent slump. There’s no secrets about what Barger’s strengths are. He’s a power-hitting platoon bat, one that posted a .231 ISO in his 413 plate appearances against RHPs during the regular season. There’s also no secret about where Luis Castillo struggled in 2025. Opposing LHBs feasted on Castillo to the tune of a .352 wOBA — compared to a .255 wOBA for opposing RHBs. Remember, it was a series at T-Mobile Park in May where Barger truly broke out and established himself as an legit MLB bat. He’s had success specifically versus Castillo, as well, with three doubles off the right-hander in seven career at-bats.
