I don’t want to say that the Steelers could basically clinch the AFC North with a victory tonight — that would be too disrespectful to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens — but at 5-1, with no other three-win team in the division, it would be a pretty commanding lead. Even in October.
Still, for the purposes of this article, we don’t care about the standings. The only lead I care about is the one that is taken by scoring the first touchdown of the night. Who will break the seal by breaking the plane first on Thursday Night Football in Week 7? Let’s break down some of the possible options on both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
Steelers vs. Bengals First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Chase Brown First Touchdown Scorer (+700)
It hasn’t translated into many actual trips into the end zone, as Chase Brown hasn’t scored a touchdown since all the way back in Week 1, but no running back is seeing a higher share of their team’s carries inside the 20-yard line than Brown (83.3%). It’s true. I swear. It’s just that the Bengals without Joe Burrow haven’t been in a position to score all that often, averaging just 2.2 red zone drives per contest, which is tied for the second-lowest mark in the NFL with the putrid Jets. With the ancient Joe Flacco (+9000) now under center for Cincinnati, Brown has even less competition for those all-important goal line rushing attempts. Considering Brown also ranks second on the Bengals in receptions (20) and third in targets (24), it’s hard to really like anyone else’s odds. Debate the likelihood of Cincinnati actually finding pay dirt first this evening, but if it happens, it’ll more than likely be Brown.
Jonnu Smith First Touchdown Scorer (+1700)
It has been incredibly frustrating trying to pinpoint first touchdown scorers for the Steelers this season. Here’s what we do know: It’ll likely be a passing touchdown, as a whopping 76.9% of Pittsburgh’s TDs have come through the air in 2025 — the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. However, six different Steelers have a receiving touchdown to their name and 10 different Steelers have at least one red zone target. This is a roster that lacks a high-leverage monopoly to any degree. While I’ll admit that DK Metcalf (+800) is properly priced with the lowest odds of the pass catchers, I’m leaning towards Jonnu Smith to find the end zone first on Thursday. It’s not just that Smith proved himself a viable red zone threat in Miami last season with eight touchdowns. It’s also the matchup. The Bengals have been shredded by opposing TEs the past four weeks, with Cincinnati’s secondary having surrendered five touchdowns to tight ends since the beginning of Week 3. That includes Tucker Kraft in Week 6 and Sam LaPorta in Week 5. Who am I to ignore a trend that strong?
