Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
For what might be the penultimate time in 2025, we’ve got a pair of baseball games on the schedule for tonight, with Game 3 of the NLCS and Game 4 of the ALCS going down on the west coast. Here are my top home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook of Thursday’s action: Shohei Ohtani and Josh Naylor.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+232)
Since going deep twice in Game 1 of the Wild Card series, Shohei Ohtani hasn’t even registered an extra-base hit in these playoffs. It’s been enough of a slump where Ohtani’s home runs odds have dropped well below +200 — and now feels like the perfect time to take advantage of the discount. Game 3 has all the making of a bullpen game for the Brewers, which makes Ohtani’s relatively neutral splits all the more important. Obviously, you’d rather the reigning MVP draw a right-handed opponent, but Ohtani’s .275 ISO and a 146 wRC+ versus southpaws is nothing to sneeze at. Overall, Ohtani finished the regular season ranking in the 100th percentile in both barrel rate (23.5%) and expected slugging rate (.672). He’s an absolute sleeping giant that could break out at any time, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ohtani hit a long ball at the exceedingly hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium. In fact, according to Statcast’s Park Factors, Los Angeles was by far the easiest place to hit a home run in 2025.
Josh Naylor 1+ Home Run (+493)
It’s unclear if an extended layoff will assist Max Scherzer when he takes the mound for Game 4 of the ALCS, but the fact of the matter is that the future first ballot Hall of Fame inductee did not look great the last time we saw him. In 15.0 innings of work in September, Scherzer surrendered four home runs and 17 earned runs, culminating in a 10.20 ERA and a .623 opponent slugging percentage. If we’re being completely honest, it’s not like Scherzer’s woes were completely confined to the final month of the regular season, either. The 41-year-old is an extreme fly ball pitcher and that means a lot of difficultly suppressing opponent launch angle — hence Scherzer’s second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.4%). Left-handed opponents were his biggest red flag, with LHBs combining to hit 2.45 long balls per nine off Scherzer throughout 2025. Seattle employs several lefty options to back with a home run prop, but I like the odds of Josh Naylor at almost 5/1. Naylor registered an .843 OPS and a 135 wRC+ against RHPs across 412 plate appearances during the regular season. Naylor also went deep earlier this week in Game 2.
