Eight months after the most surprising trade in NBA history, the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks will once again meet on the basketball court for the Mavericks’ final game of preseason action. Los Angeles will suit up once more after this, taking on the Sacramento Kings on Friday, and it is coming off of a 113-104 defeat last night to the Phoenix Suns. The game will start at 10:30 p.m. ET.
This is the game between the two teams that will not center around Luka Dončić. The Slovenian had 25 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in 22 minutes last night but unsurprisingly will rest on the second night of the back-to-back.
Without the specter of facing its former star, Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-285 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 218.5. The Lakers are +230 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down one of the season’s final meaningless games and offer a prediction.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
With neither Dončić or LeBron James on the floor, all attention will turn to Mavericks wunderkind Cooper Flagg. The first overall pick has been spectacular so far this preseason, starting at point guard in Dallas’ 114-101 victory over the Utah Jazz on Monday and recording 11 points, seven rebounds, two steals, and two blocks in 21 minutes of action. He’s shown impressive chemistry with Anthony Davis, the centerpiece of the Dončić deal, and the newly-goggled star forward dropped 25 points, six boards, two steals, and two blocks in 25 minutes on Monday night as well. Dallas is 2-1 heading into tonight’s contest.
The Mavericks have looked far more impressive than the Lakers, whose only win came against a Golden State Warriors team sitting both Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III. At least Los Angeles’ marquee acquisition, center Deandre Ayton, has looked decent, averaging 7.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in just 21.7 minutes per game. The Lakers’ other new signing, Jake LaRavia, was intended to bring wing depth and three-point shooting; he’s made just 25.0% of his triples so far, though he’s contributed a team-leading 1.7 steals per game. Both of Los Angeles’ second-year pros, Bronny James and Dalton Knecht, have disappointed so far thanks to inefficient shooting.
Mavericks at Lakers pick, best bet
Flagg’s prowess on both ends of the floor has been on display, as Dallas outscored opponents by 13.9 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of his NBA career (advanced stats aren’t yet available for Monday’s game). He’s also shot the ball fairly well, hitting 36.4% of his triples and all of his free throws. A lot of the Mavericks’ success this season will depend on whether or not the 18-year-old can be a reliable No. 2 option, and so far he’s answered all the questions affirmatively. He’s played 20-plus minutes in each of the past two games, so I’d expect a similar workload tonight.
Thanks in part to Flagg’s defense, Dallas has averaged 9.7 blocks per game so far this preseason, 1.7 more than any other team. The Mavericks’ playmaking has also been impressive, as they rank fourth in that stat despite having a point guard rotation that consists of the scoring-oriented D’Angelo Russell and an undrafted rookie in Ryan Nembhard, who dropped 12 assists in 26 minutes in the win over Utah. The double-big approach has also paid dividends in the paint, as they’re averaging the fourth-most rebounds and holding opponents to the fifth-fewest made field goals within five feet.
Especially without James and Dončić, the Lakers don’t have the size to match Dallas’ interior strength. While Ayton has played capably in his minutes, Jaxson Hayes had the second-worst plus-minus on the team in the preseason defeat to Phoenix and Christian Koloko, while a capable defender, doesn’t offer much on offense. Los Angeles has made fewer three-pointers than all but three NBA teams (plus guest participants South East Melbourne Phoenix and Hapoel Jerusalem), and it has dished out fewer assists than all but the Philadelphia 76ers, Hapoel Jerusalem, and the Guangzhou Loong-Lions. Without two of the league’s greatest-ever passing savants, expect a lot of Bronny James and Austin Reaves iso-ball, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success.
Ayton also hasn’t fixed Los Angeles’ weakness at post defense. The Lakers have allowed the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet, once again topping South East Melbourne and Guangzhou, as well as the Memphis Grizzlies and Charlotte Hornets. They’ve also bested only Charlotte, Hapoel Jerusalem, South East Melbourne, Guangzhou and the Utah Jazz at preventing assists, but at least they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest rebounds. Arguably Los Angeles’ best trait so far this preseason has been its discipline: it has drawn the 10th-most free throw attempts while committing the fourth-fewest fouls. That’s not a huge edge against the Mavericks, who haven’t been very foul-prone. I’ll take Dallas to win in a blowout.
