The Green Bay Packers’ offense might soon look a lot different. Christian Watson, who finished third on the team in receiving yards before tearing his ACL in Week 18 against the Chicago Bears, was activated from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list prior to Week 6 and looks fairly likely to play in this weekend’s clash against the Arizona Cardinals, and Jayden Reed will return from his collarbone and foot surgeries at some point. Last season, Green Bay operated a fairly egalitarian offense — each of Reed, Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Tucker Kraft recorded at least 600 receiving yards — and so far this season, Doubs, Kraft, and Matthew Golden each have at least 200.
So far this season, Doubs leads all Packers pass-catchers in fantasy points, ranking as the 33rd-best wide receiver by DraftKings’ fantasy scoring. That level of production is predominantly because he leads Green Bay with four receiving touchdowns; on a per-game and per-catch basis, he’s been almost exactly as productive as he was last season. He hasn’t had a lot of game-to-game consistency this season, as three of his four touchdowns came in the Monday Night Football tie against the woeful Dallas Cowboys defense, but his high (85%-plus) snap share underscores his importance to the offense.
Overall, I’m skeptical that his production will be overly affected by Watson’s return, at least in the early going. Though Watson has excelled in practice, the Packers shouldn’t be in too much of a rush to bring him back to full speed, given that, at 3-1-1 with a fairly friendly remaining schedule, they can reasonably expect to make the postseason. Doubs’ 31.8% red zone target share should remain high, as even last season, he garnered one more red zone target than Watson did. He was also far more efficient on those targets, as Watson caught just two of his eight and Doubs seven of his nine. Quarterback Jordan Love is enjoying the best season of his career while using Doubs as his primary red zone target, so that shouldn’t change.
If anything, Watson’s return would hurt Golden more than Doubs. While Doubs lines up almost exclusively on the outside, Watson took nearly one-third of his snaps in the slot last season, and the lightning-quick Golden has had his best production out of the slot. Plus, they play different roles in the offense; Watson was predominantly a deep threat last season, posting a 17.8-yard average depth of target, while Doubs (12.8 ADOT) is more of a possession receiver. It’s more than possible for both types of receivers to be fantasy-viable in the same scheme, as they were last season.
Green Bay has a few fairly favorable matchups coming up, including games against the Baltimore Ravens (fourth-most receiving yards allowed), Arizona Cardinals (fifth), and New York Giants (sixth). Plus, while standard stats overrate the Carolina Panthers’ and Chicago Bears’ defenses, they, too, rank among the league’s worst units by expected points added. Those are the games in which Doubs should be expected to produce solid fantasy output, with or without Watson.
