The road team remains undefeated in the Major League Baseball Championship Series, with the Dodgers up 2-0 after taking two games in Milwaukee and the Mariners up 2-0 as the ALCS moves to Seattle this Wednesday.
Even with only Game 3 of the ALCS on the schedule, there are still some good options for home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook. After taking a look at the matchups, game environment, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for tonight are for George Springer and Jorge Polanco.
Just like during the regular season, all home run props are long shot bets by their very nature. In fact, with such a small pool and elite pitchers, they are even more difficult to hit in the postseason. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction.
While home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re so volatile. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these home run props in Wednesday’s Game 3.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
George Springer 1+ Home Run (+410)
Springer started the season with a dinger on the first pitch he saw, but the Blue Jays haven’t been able to get hardly anything going on offense since then.
Springer is still one of their top power options, though, coming into this matchup against George Kirby. Kirby gave up three runs on nine hits in 10 innings in the ALDS against the Tigers, including a home run by Kerry Carpenter. He gave up 15 homers in the regular season, including four homers in his last five starts, dating back to the regular season.
In the previous meetings of these two Georges, Springer is 3-for-8 with a double and a walk against Kirby. Springer didn’t have another hit in Game 1, but he had a double and scored a run in Game 2, which is enough to qualify him as one of the Blue Jays’ best hitters so far this series.
In his bounce-back season with 34 homers, he hit 24 blasts off of righties like Kirby, and he hit 16 of those homers in his 50 games after the All-Star break. He’s also a proven playoff producer with 21 career homers in his 73 playoff games with a .269 ISO and .366 wOBA.
The Jays will look to get off to a fast start in Seattle, so Springer’s role as the leadoff man will be critical. The fact that he’ll likely hit at the top of the order can also get him an extra at-bat, giving him more chances to deliver solid value on these home run props.
Jorge Polanco 1+ Home Run (+550)
The Mariners’ magical run has been fueled by key production from role players, including Polanco. He is 8-for-31 (.258) in his seven games this playoffs with three home runs, including this blast from Game 2.
The switch-hitting Polanco hit 15 of his 26 regular-season homers at home this year, with a .378 wOBA. He’ll also be on the strong side of his splits against righty Shane Bieber, since 21 of his homers came off righties, who he posted a .342 wOBA against. He hit for a better average against lefties, but for his home run props, we only care about his power, which is more of a factor when he’s hitting from the left-hand side against righties like Bieber.
Bieber and Polanco have a long history from their time in the AL Central, and Polanco went 8-for-29 (.276) with two walks, two RBIs and no extra-base hits against Bieber in their past meetings. However, Bieber hasn’t been his fully dominant self since returning from the IL this season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 4.47 FIP and 1.79 HR/9 in his seven starts this season. He gave up eight homers in seven starts this season, and only lasted 2 ⅔ innings against the Yankees in his ALDS start.
Polanco will look to continue Bieber’s struggles and continue to push his M’s to the World Series with another big game on Wednesday. With his strong recent form and flair for the dramatic, his home run props seem to be a great value at +550 this Wednesday night.
